It looks like I didn’t miss much during my work-related blogging hiatus over the last few days — here’s UNC’s Jim Stimson yesterday:
Friday 10/31: Steady As She Goes: With four days remaining the apparent tightening of recent days has relapsed to pretty much the state of affairs of a week ago. Notwithstanding claims from the McCain camp of progress in the private polls, the picture painted by the now huge numbers of public polls is one of stark stability. Perhaps we have never seen a lead as unvarying as this one — or maybe it is only the case that the data of previous elections weren’t good enough to observe such stability.
Stimson puts Obama at 53.7% of the two-party presidential vote; Pollster.com has Obama at 53.1%; and Sam Wang’s meta-analysis of the Electoral Vote puts Obama at just over 360 electoral votes with a 95% confidence interval well above 270. Absent a massive Republican tide in the last three days, this thing is over.