UNC’s James Stimson (the country’s leading analyst of macro public opinion) is posting daily horse race estimates for the presidential race on his website. Right now he has Obama at 53% of the two-party vote:

It’s almost exactly consistent with the estimate by Wisconsin’s Charles Franklin that appears at Pollster.com:

[Note that, unlike Stimson, Franklin’s graph covers 2007 as well as 2008. Also, he includes lines for both Obama and McCain.]