Ezra Klein highlights Ray Fair’s model of presidential election outcomes in a recent post. Fair is projecting that the GOP will receive 48 percent of the two-party presidnetial vote, but (a) his projection assumes a much stronger economy than we’re likely to have and (b) he tinkered with the specification a lot over the years to maximize fit (PDF), which makes me and others uncomfortable.

I prefer Douglas Hibbs’s Bread and Peace model, which is more parsimonious. He currently projects 46-47% for the Republican two-party vote.