Brendan Nyhan

Futures markets in silly season

Now is the time when the press starts to go berserk about every little change in poll numbers, but it’s worth keeping in mind that the fundamentals of the Democratic and Republican races have not changed as much as people think. In particular, as Josh Marshall points out, the Intrade futures markets still counts Hillary Clinton as the overwhelming favorite on the Democratic side, which I think is correct. (On the other hand, Rudy is arguably overvalued.)