Brendan Nyhan

More on the “progress” fallacy

The Wall Street Journal highlights Washington Democrat Brian Baird’s statement backing the surge in response to attacks from MoveOn.org:

Mr. Baird is so far showing no signs of backing down from his comments. In response to the MoveOn attacks, he said: “I believe I must speak and act based on what I believe is in the best interest of our nation regardless of political advertisements or partisan interests. Based on personal visits to the region, I believe the dynamics on the ground in Iraq are changing for the better and, while there are still multiple and serious challenges, and while the course is uncertain and dangerous, the changes I have seen warrant continued support of current actions through next spring.”

But as I wrote on Monday, whether things have improved slightly since January is irrelevant. All that matters is our expected utility going forward — namely, will we better off if we stay or if we withdraw?