Why is Jeb Bush struggling to find a message that will resonate in the 2016 invisible primary contest for the GOP presidential nomination? One reason, I argue in a new Upshot column, is the mismatch between the Florida electorate he previously served and the national GOP primary electorate:

The former Florida governor Jeb Bush is a strong potential candidate for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination with one big problem — finding a message that will resonate with the activists, donors and elected officials who dominate the invisible primary process…

It’s true that Mr. Bush’s political skills may be rusty after seven years out of elected office.

But the deeper problem is that the messaging and positions that worked for him in Florida — a swing state with a large Hispanic population — are not necessarily a good fit with the national G.O.P. primary electorate, which is far whiter and more conservative.

Read the whole thing for more.