Brendan Nyhan

Is inattention causing shift on Iraq?

A reader who prefers to remain anonymous suggests a parsimonious explanation for why Iraq “right decision” numbers are up in public opinion polls — inattention to the news during the summer due to vacations, etc. He did some preliminary analysis of the time series and couldn’t find enough data to draw a strong conclusion either way, but his theory would certainly make sense. If he’s right, we should expect the “right decision” numbers to decline again in September as voters return from vacation and confront the bad news.