Brendan Nyhan

Social mobility isn’t a matter of faith

Prof. Arthur C. Brooks of Sycracuse has an annoying op-ed in the Wall Street Journal today that frames different beliefs in social mobility as a matter of values:

While just about everybody — left and right — agrees that poverty is unacceptable … conservatives do not share liberals’ concern about income inequality. According to the 2005 Maxwell Poll on Civic Engagement and Inequality, self-described liberals are more than twice as likely as conservatives to say income inequality in America is a “serious problem.” And while 84% of liberals think the government should do more to reduce inequality, only 25% of conservatives agree.

This is empirical substantiation for the old cliché that conservatives just don’t care about the poor, right? Wrong. In fact, the data do not tell us that conservatives are uncaring; they actually tell us that conservatives are optimists. Conservatives are relatively untroubled by inequality, and unsupportive of government income redistribution, because they believe the American economy provides private opportunities to succeed. Liberals are far more pessimistic than conservatives about the possibility of a better future for Americans of modest means.

Consider the evidence. While 92% of conservatives believe that hard work and perseverance can help a person overcome disadvantage, only 65% of liberals think so…

Naturally, well-to-do liberals must be amazed at the gullibility of the millions of poorer conservatives who still cling to the idea of America’s promise of a better future through hard work and perseverance. Sunny conservatives of all economic classes may very well prefer to see things their way about America. Are conservatives naïve, or are liberals unjustifiably dour? Reasonable people disagree on this question.

But this isn’t just a matter of faith or values. We have evidence to bring to bear on the question of whether “hard work and perseverance can help a person overcome disadvantage.” And the evidence, sadly, is grim. To take one example, The Economist reports that a recent study found “only 10% of the adult men born in the bottom quarter [of the income distribution] had made it to the top quarter” nineteen years later.