The subscription-only Hotline has a useful analysis of cumulative national and state-by-state vote totals by party for the House:
We all know ’06 was bad for the GOP. But the breadth of the Dem victory shows up starkly in a new Hotline analysis of the cumulative nat’l vote for House candidates.
— Dems won 54.1% of the two-party vote in ’06, much better than the GOP’s 52.5% win in ’02. That fueled Dem advantages in 27 states last year, compared to only 19 in ’02. Most importantly, Dems carried the net vote in several swing states (OH, PA, MI, NV, NH), some of which they hadn’t carried in more than a decade. Even in the reddest states, GOPers struggled to win more than 55% last year. They lost TN and NC outright. Also, Dems let only 10 GOPers go unchallenged in ’06, compared to 45 uncontested Dem seats.
— Heading into ’08, this is good news for a party whose WH nominee hasn’t carried a majority of the popular vote since ’76. In broad (and surprising) regions, vast numbers of Americans pulled the Dem lever last year. Was ’06 a blip of good Dem news? Or the start of a long-term improvement in the brand name “Democrat”?
They also had a nice overview of Iraq/2008 politics in yesterday’s lede:
As he tries to sell his Iraq surge plan, Pres. Bush needs McCain more than ever, a new Diageo/Hotline poll shows.
— The plan is widely unpopular, no matter who the author is. But the survey shows voters are more inclined to back a “McCain strategy” on Iraq than a “Bush strategy.” McCain aligned himself with Bush in ’04 to bolster his GOP creds; Now, Bush needs to cozy up to McCain to help sell the surge. Will McCain be open to that, considering the pitfalls of running as Bush’s ’08 candidate?
— For now, he can afford to take the risk; Despite Dems’ 18-point lead in an ’08 generic, McCain leads all 3 top Dems (Clinton, Edwards and Obama) in head-to-heads. The best Dem scenario? Edwards vs. Giuliani.
— Elsewhere in the poll: Pelosi’s fav ratings have doubled since 10/06; her unfavs have only inched up slightly. Nearly 1 in 5 GOPers give her thumbs-up. Also, slightly more voters view Congress favorably, for the 1st time since at least last summer. Another pol who’s popular these days: Lieberman. (Are you listening, Obama?).