Tradesports has an interesting contract on President Bush’s approval rating on November 7, 2006 — will it be greater than 30%? 32%? etc. — which I translated into the following graph using basic rules of probability:

Bush’s current approval rating (38%) is near the value given the highest probability, but what’s going on with the hump in predicted probability around 45%? Are people anticipating a surge in approval after a terrorist attack or something? It’s hard to see how Bush gets there from here given that his recent mini-surge in approval has trailed off.