Given George Allen’s ugly racial history, will the “macaca” gaffe hurt his prospects for the 2008 presidential nomination?

Back in April, I noted that Ryan Lizza’s devastating Allen cover story in The New Republic had no effect on futures market prices for his 2008 presidential candidacy.

Will “macaca” be different? Here are live charts of futures market trading on the contract for Allen receiving the 2008 GOP presidential nomination over the last 24 hours, last week, and the lifetime of the contract, respectively — the 24 hours chart currently suggests that a decline may be taking place:

It’s an open question (PDF) in political science whether futures market prices accurately reflect the probability of a candidate’s success, but if they do, these prices could be a leading indicator of damage to Allen’s prospects.