Brendan Nyhan

Bush’s tricky employment/net worth stats

In an email sent to RNC supporters (PDF), President Bush touts the state of the economy using some of his trademark misleading economic statistics:

Because Republicans acted and had an economic recovery plan, we have created strong economic growth and nearly 5.3 million new jobs in the last two and half years; the national unemployment rate has dropped to 4.6% — that is lower than the average rate of the 1960s, 1970s, the 1980s and the 1990s; productivity is up and household net worth is at an all-time high.

But as I’ve noted, the employment and net worth statistics are highly misleading.

First, Bush measures job growth from 2004 (“last two and a half years”) even though he took office in January 2001 and passed his first tax cut in June of that year. When we look at job growth over the course of his term, the pictures is more grim (note that this graphic is from my post in December 2005 and hasn’t been updated):

Nonfarm_2

Similarly, I showed that the growth in household net worth is heavily concentrated at the top of the distribution in these two charts:

Fivelines_1

Threelines

Sadly, the national press will probably print these claims without fact-checking them…