Writing in the New York Times yesterday, columnist Nicholas Kristof summarizes how the weight of the evidence has grown against the Duke lacrosse prosecution:

Time-stamped photos show the accuser dancing at a lacrosse team party at 12:04 a.m. and slumped outside the house where the party was taking place at 12:30 a.m., so the alleged beating, gang rape and sodomy would have had to occur during that interval. Stuart Taylor Jr., the legal writer once for this newspaper and now for National Journal, has noted that the later photo shows her looking relaxed, with her clothes in good order.

Mr. Taylor, who has covered this case meticulously, told me he was more than 90 percent confident that the defendants were innocent.One of the defendants is Reade Seligmann, whose cellphone made at least seven calls between 12:05 and 12:14. The last was to a taxi driver, who picked up Mr. Seligmann at 12:19. That’s a pretty good alibi.

Meanwhile, no DNA evidence has turned up to confirm that the accuser had any sex with the lacrosse players (she said no condoms were used)…

I’ve been poring over a half-dozen police reports and witness reports filed in court in dribs and drabs, the latest just a few days ago. The initial police report by Sgt. J. C. Shelton shows that the accuser didn’t raise the issue of rape until she was about to be locked up in a mental health center. Then when she said she had been raped, she was transported instead to a hospital, where the same police report says she recanted the rape charge, and finally reinstated it.

Newsweek also analyzes how the latest evidence has opened major holes in the prosecution’s case:

Early in the Duke lacrosse rape investigation, Durham District Attorney Mike Nifong, who was in a close race to keep his job, spoke about the physical and emotional trauma the alleged victim had suffered at the hands of the players. A police affidavit stated that her medical records revealed the victim had “injuries consistent with being raped and sexually assaulted vaginally and anally.” But according to a motion filed by defense attorneys last week, no such physical trauma was found during her exam at Duke hospital. Quoting from the report, which was submitted to the court under seal, the motion states that the nurse—who was in training—examined the woman’s entire pelvic region and noted only diffuse swelling of the vaginal walls, a condition explainable by consensual sexual activity.

Police documents indicate that the accuser had in fact engaged in such activity in the days leading up to the incident. The accuser told police that she’d had sex with her boyfriend a week before. She added that she’d also performed using a vibrator in front of a couple. (Though the timing of this incident is not specific, the clear implication is that it had happened near the time of the lacrosse party.) And, according to defense attorneys, the boyfriend’s seminal fluid was found in her, suggesting she’d also had sex with him within 72 hours. Jarriel Johnson, who identified himself as the woman’s driver, told police in a statement that in addition to sleeping with the accuser himself a week prior to the party, he’d taken her to several appointments at hotels in the days before.

The documents are devastating to the accuser’s credibility. They show that the night of the party, the accuser kept changing her story. After reporting that she’d been raped, she told Sgt. J. C. Shelton, according to his statement, that no one forced her to have sex. Then at the hospital, she said again that she’d been raped. She told one doctor she’d had no alcohol or drugs, according to the motion, but told the nurse that she’d had one drink and was currently taking the muscle relaxant Flexeril, which can cause drowsiness and dizziness if taken with alcohol. The next morning, at UNC hospital, she said she’d been drunk.

The police summary of the statement Kim Roberts, the second dancer, made is especially damning. Roberts said the idea that the woman was assaulted was a “crock.” She went on to say that the accuser, who used the stage name Precious, was out of Roberts’s sight for less than five minutes. Roberts later told NEWSWEEK she believed a rape could have happened. In the meantime, Nifong, who declined a request for comment, had approved a motion to eliminate Roberts’s bond payments stemming from a prior conviction.