I have a new post up at Columbia Journalism Review on how the media’s focus on swing states and voter demographics misses the big picture. Here’s how it begins:

With Mitt Romney’s hold on the GOP nomination becoming too obvious to deny, horse race enthusiasts in the political media have quickly shifted to handicapping the general election. Unfortunately, their recent focus on key states and demographics—in particular, the effects of the contraception controversy on women voters in battleground states—threatens to obscure more fundamental factors that are most likely to shape the outcome of the campaign.

Read the whole thing for more.