 From my Twitter feed (8/3-8/8)Aug 9, 2011 at 3:13 AM |
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Obama re-elect odds now down to dead-even on Intrade – bid 50.0, ask 50.1 http://j.mp/pQeHXe (caveat: low volume)
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| Time and Sales Chart – Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012 Show:Closing pricesTime and Sales Time Zone Europe – LondonEurope – UTC/GMTUS – Eastern TimeUS – Central TimeUS – Mountain TimeUS – Pacific TimeAsia – Hong Kong | |
| Aug 9, 2011 at 1:14 AM | |
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RT @jbouie: http://j.mp/qwp7XG @mattyglesias uses the case of James Monroe’s administration to make a defense of political parties and partisanship.
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 James Monroe And The Need For Partisanship My main takeaway from Harlow Unger’s The Last Founding Father: James Monroe and a Nation’s Call to Greatness is that the life of James Monroe was not particularly interesting compared to that of… |
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| Aug 9, 2011 at 1:04 AM | |
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RT @JustinWolfers: In my whole life I don’t think I’ve ever seen the DC conventional wisdom as firmly at odds with standard textbook economics. #AusteritySucks
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| Aug 9, 2011 at 12:59 AM | |
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RT @abuaardvark: Maybe if Obama tells a good story today about GOP bad guys the markets will rally, jobs appear, Congress cooperate, and Asad flee Syria.
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| Aug 9, 2011 at 1:15 AM | |
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Overhyped: “individual state campaigns” http://j.mp/of4ToA Obama’s win in 2008 was a relatively uniform swing vs Kerry ’04.
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 Obama Team Now Focuses on Tough Re-Election Campaign – NYTimes.com Despite the advantages of incumbency and the absence so far of a strong opponent, President Obama’s re-election is far from assured, analysts say. |
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| Aug 8, 2011 at 12:59 PM | |
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Douthat on the seductive fiction of realignment: “next election may be no more transformative than 2008 turned out to be” http://j.mp/nl44uc
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 Waiting for a Landslide – NYTimes.com How dreams of a final victory are downgrading our politics. |
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| Aug 8, 2011 at 12:56 PM | |
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More on the Groseclose-Milyo media bias paper @monkeycageblog – statistical results found not to be robust http://j.mp/qZ9RNM
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| More on the Groseclose-Milyo Measure of Media Bias — The Monkey Cage From a forthcoming paper by John Gasper. Find it here (pdf). | |
| Aug 8, 2011 at 12:44 PM | |
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The disaster of US patent law — stories from Mark Cuban http://t.co/5lY8tRw (top 2 posts) and This American Life http://t.co/3iWQZro
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 blog maverick My last two posts were designed to stimulate discussion. But lets talk the real problem that regulators, public companies, investor/shareholders and traders face. The problem is that Wall Street… |
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 When Patents Attack! | This American Life Why would a company rent an office in a tiny town in East Texas, put a nameplate on the door, and leave it completely empty for a year? The answer involves a controversial billionaire physicist … |
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| Aug 7, 2011 at 7:30 PM | |
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Drew Westen the latest to say Obama’s problems could be fixed w/better messaging http://j.mp/oVASY0 Highly unlikely – see http://j.mp/aFHzmJ
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 What Happened to Obama’s Passion? – NYTimes.com There was a story the American people were waiting to hear — and needed to hear — but he didn’t tell it. |
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| Aug 7, 2011 at 6:31 PM | |
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RT @ClaytonNall: Westen in NYT: Obama shld learn from FDR’s 1936 “I welcome their hatred” speech. But that speech was on 10/31/1936 w/ landslide in the bag
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| Aug 7, 2011 at 6:35 PM | |
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RT @kwcollins: Why does the NYT keep giving space to evidence-free claims that political fortunes would improve if leaders just said X?
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| Aug 7, 2011 at 7:21 PM | |
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RT @kwcollins: At no point in Westen’s op-ed does he present anything resembling evidence, beyond the banal observation that narratives make good messages
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| Aug 7, 2011 at 7:21 PM | |
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RT @kwcollins: Westen does reference sound research on the sources of policy influence (e.g. public opinion of wealthy), but if anything …
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| Aug 7, 2011 at 7:21 PM | |
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RT @kwcollins: … that suggests that Westen’s proposed fixes (Better speeches! Simple narratives! My magic paragraph!) are unlikely to change anything.
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| Aug 7, 2011 at 7:21 PM | |
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RT @dgardner: Nyhan on Westen, a few years ago. http://bit.ly/r2vHyB
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| Aug 8, 2011 at 1:08 AM | |
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John Sides on Westen’s op-ed: “We can learn little…from…speeches never given and the alleged character flaws implied” http://j.mp/nOZr8u
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| S cript Doctor — The Monkey Cage Drew Westen’s indictment of Obama is right on several secondary points about public opinion, but fundamentally wrong in its portrayal of presidential power within American politics. Even though … |
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| Aug 8, 2011 at 2:22 AM | |
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Yet more on flaws in Westen’s piece: Mischaracterizing FDR to Indict Obama @monkeycageblog http://j.mp/n6NuVN
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| Mischaracterizing FDR to Indict Obama — The Monkey Cage Part of Drew Westen’s piece suggested that Obama should have followed the example of FDR: I asked Eric Schickler, a political scientist at UC-Berkeley who has done research (forthcoming) on publ… | |
| Aug 8, 2011 at 10:21 PM | |
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Agreed – a must-read. RT @smotus: Awesome takedown of Drew Westen’s NYT piece by Chait. http://t.co/qncbecD
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| Drew Westen’s Nonsense | The New Republic There are some strong criticisms to be made of the Obama administration from the left, especially concerning Obama’s passive response to the debt ceiling hostage crisis, and his frightening will… | |
| Aug 9, 2011 at 1:12 AM | |
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Agree with @mattyglesias on this – Rick Perry Is Electable Enough http://bit.ly/q46Pit
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 Rick Perry Is Electable Enough I’ve recently seen a surge of stories that seem to me to be geared toward creating false confidence that Rick Perry is somehow a laughably unelectable character who Barack Obama is destined to b… |
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| Aug 5, 2011 at 1:33 AM | |
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RT @GrahamDavidA: Get elected during a period of economic boom? RT @TheFix: What Barack Obama can learn from Bill Clin
ton. http://ow.ly/5VtuY |
 What Barack Obama can learn from Bill Clinton – The Fix – The Washington Post Barack Obama turns 50 years old today, a milestone that comes at a political crossroads of sorts for his presidency. The nation’s economy continues to struggle, the Dow is faltering and voters s… |
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| Aug 5, 2011 at 1:22 AM | |
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RT @MysteryPollster: Considering low Congressional approval, it’s causes, consequences http://t.co/UaOUgyp
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 Congressional Job Approval Nears ‘Lowest Ever’ Levels: What Can Turn It Around? This article has been updated to include a new New York Times/CBS News poll released Thursday night. WASHINGTON — The new CNN/ORC International poll conducted Monday night shows congressional j… |
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| Aug 5, 2011 at 1:17 AM | |
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Extrapolation driven by 92 (banking scandal) MT @fivethirtyeight 14% Cong. app. corresponds to 90-100 House losing seats http://t.co/3HeoTNJ
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| Surveying the Electoral Damage of the Debt Debate – NYTimes.com There aren’t any winners here, but you can argue that Republicans have sustained more damage. | |
| Aug 5, 2011 at 1:15 AM | |
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RT @richardmskinner: doubt we will see ’92 level of retirements – last yr members could convert campaign $ to personal use
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| Aug 5, 2011 at 11:05 AM | |
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RT @daveweigel: Checking in with birther
s b/f Obama’s birthday. They literally just changed slogan to “Where’s the REAL BC?” http://slate.me/nnQ7VP |
| Undead Birtherism | |
| Aug 4, 2011 at 2:39 AM | |
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Ray Fair forecasting Obama 53.4% based on implausible economic growth forecast http://j.mp/o9VPF7 More realistic estimates->narrow GOP win
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| Vote-Share Equations: November 2010 Update Predictions: The current and past predictions of VP and VC using the economic forecasts from the US model are: The prediction of an Obama victory with 53.4 percent of the two-party vote is condi… | |
| Aug 3, 2011 at 5:15 PM | |