The [President’s] budget is notable for including limits on spending that are unlikely to be enacted and for excluding expenses that are sure to be incurred. Here are the most important points:
-It assumes that all discretionary spending outside of military and domestic security – everything from paperclips to space shuttles – will be frozen for the next five years.
-It includes no spending for the war in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2006. Those costs are now running about $5 billion a month and are likely to continue at some level in the 2006 fiscal year and beyond.
-It omits the initial cost of Mr. Bush’s Social Security plan, which would let people divert some of their payroll taxes to private saving accounts. Administration officials estimate the plan would cost $23 billion in 2009 and $754 billion over the next decade.
-It leaves out the cost of reining in the Alternative Minimum Tax, a tax that was created to affect the nation’s wealthiest taxpayers but is now ensnaring millions of moderate-income families as incomes rise with inflation
The spending plan [White House budget director Joshua] Bolten outlined was a model of fiscal responsibility. But as he fielded questions for an hour, it became steadily clearer why the new budget seemed so restrained: The White House left out a lot of expenses the government is likely to have, while including savings the government is unlikely ever to see.
For example, Bolten granted that it is certain that more money will be needed for Iraq and Afghanistan in 2006 and beyond. “But,” he added, “it wouldn’t be responsible for us to take a guess at what those costs are.”
Yet, moments later, Bolten explained why it was perfectly responsible to guess about new revenue from drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge — even though such a program has not been approved by Congress. “Well,” he said, “the budget is the right place to present the entirety of the president’s policies, so all of his proposals are reflected in there.”
The theme repeated itself throughout Bolten’s briefing: Potential good news was embraced, and potential bad news was left out of the equation. How about the hundreds of billions of dollars the government would borrow to convert Social Security to personal accounts under Bush’s plan? Not included. “The budget went to bed . . . before the president’s proposals were announced,” Bolten explained.
Nor are the hundreds of billions of dollars that it would cost to change the alternative minimum tax, which Bush had vowed to do as it hits more middle-class taxpayers. “It does need to be reformed,” Bolten said, but it is not in the budget forecasts.
…Some of the questioners were clearly skeptical about the administration’s assumptions: its decision to focus on growth in “non-security discretionary spending” (which ignores 80 percent of the federal budget), its belief that such spending could be held steady for five years (it has never happened before), and its dropping of 10-year budget forecasts (they show exploding deficits).
No quantity of skepticism, though, would disturb the budget director from his Zen state. “None of this makes us feel uncomfortable,” he said.