Brendan Nyhan

Krugman on the returns/growth contradiction

I haven’t seen a convincing answer to this claim, which Krugman

Schemes for Social Security privatization, like the one described in the 2004 Economic Report of the President, invariably assume that investing in stocks will yield a high annual rate of return, 6.5 or 7 percent after inflation, for at least the next 75 years. Without that assumption, these schemes can’t deliver on their promises. Yet a rate of return that high is mathematically impossible unless the economy grows much faster than anyone is now expecting.

If he’s right, it blows up most arguments for private accounts.