One of the questions I’m most interested in is whether misperceptions about health care reform, which plagued the debate (PDF) over President Obama’s proposal, will decline as the law is implemented. I’m not optimistic. Given the continued flow of criticism from the right and the extent to which people rely on their prior beliefs in interpreting new information, it seems likely that false claims about the law will be a continuing problem for years to come.

However, things may be even worse than I thought. One factor I hadn’t anticipated is the potential incentive for insurers and other stakeholders to appeal to anti-reform sentiments using potentially misleading language. For instance, Kaiser Permanente recently distributed a flyer to members in California (PDF) which ominously warns that “health care choices may be limited” starting in 2014 and that anyone who changes plans “may need to choose a government-mandated plan”:

While Kaiser does not make any false claims about the changes that will result from the law in 2014, members who have negative preconceptions about the law may read that language as suggesting that the government will restrict their choice of health care. In fact, many of the most important benefits provided by the law take effect in 2014. As a result, a number of people will have more choice over health care and better benefits starting that year (though of course others may find that their plans and benefits change in less advantageous ways).