Brendan Nyhan

Useless instant polls on Obama speech

Per Mark Blumenthal, all instant polls on reactions to Obama’s speech are scientifically useless — pay no attention to them. For instance, CNN touts its poll as showing a “Double-digit post-speech jump for Obama plan” but is forced to admit that “The audience for the speech appears to be more Democratic than the U.S. population as a whole.” I continue to expect that the ultimate effect of the speech will be minimal.

Update 9/10 7:13 AM: Blumenthal notes that instant polls showed a similar reaction to the 2006 State of the Union, and that wasn’t exactly a game-changer for the Bush administration.