Brendan Nyhan

New NYT: The effects of gaffes and health concerns

From my new Upshot column:

Hillary Clinton undoubtedly had a tough weekend, but how much will it affect the election?

On Friday night, Mrs. Clinton said half of Donald J. Trump’s supporters belonged in “the basket of deplorables” — “racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic.” Survey data suggests that a substantial fraction of Mr. Trump’s supporters do hold deeply negative views of several demographic groups, but after heavy criticism she said, “I regret saying ‘half’ — that was wrong.”

Then on Sunday, Mrs. Clinton staggered in public. Following hours of uncertainty, her campaign disclosed that she had previously been diagnosed with pneumonia, prompting renewed questions about her health and her secretive tendencies.

Both episodes are receiving extensive news media coverage, but past experience shows that what many consider to be gaffes typically have very limited effects on the actual vote. Candidate health issues, however, could be more unpredictable.