Brendan Nyhan

  • Sanford Levinson’s case against the veto

    The New Republic has published an article making a case against the veto by Sanford Levinson, a professor of law and government at the University of Texas:

    I have no objection to a Constitution-based veto, even if it is unclear whether the president should, in such circumstances, be allowed the last word. Rather, I am concerned about a system–like the one the United States currently has–under which the president becomes, in effect, a third legislative chamber, able, with the stroke of a pen, to negate the views of up to 289 House members and 66 senators.

    What is so wrong with permitting the White House to act as another legislative branch? Put simply, the veto tilts the balance of power in Washington too far toward the status quo. It is already difficult enough to gain the consent of both the House and Senate on legislation, and the veto exacerbates this problem. Advocates of change must capture the House, the Senate, and the White House, whereas defenders of the status quo need to win over only one. This sets a high barrier to reform; and paralysis on key issues–such as health care and immigration–is too often the result.

    If we repealed the veto, it would move the US toward a quasi-parliamentary system — an action that would have far-reaching consequences for the organization of parties and executive power in this country. But it would not necessarily prevent legislative “paralysis.”

    Set aside the president for a moment and start with the Senate, which is also anti-majoritarian. As Keith Krehbiel’s book Pivotal Politics points out, the approval of any policy in the Senate requires that the pivotal voter in a filibuster prefers that policy to the status quo. If the proposal is to move policy in a conservative direction, then the 41st most liberal senator is the filibuster pivot (and vice versa for moving policy in a liberal direction).

    The veto comes in when Congress passes a proposal that the president does not prefer relative to the status quo. If Democrats took back Congress, for instance, then the relevant pivots in the next Congress would be the 67th most liberal senator and the corresponding House member, who would both have to prefer the policy to the status quo to override the president’s veto. If the president did not have veto power, the relevant pivot would be the 60th most liberal senator (and the median House member).

    This shift would be the most basic legislative consequence of the elimination of the veto. Its magnitude would vary depending on the ideologies of the relevant members of Congress — it could be quite substantial or relatively modest. According to the DW-Nominate estimates of legislative ideal points for the 108th Congress, for instance, the 60th most liberal senator was Richard Lugar of Indiana and the 67th most liberal was Jim Talent of Missouri. In the House, the median voter was Jack Quinn of New York and the veto pivot would have been Kay Granger of Texas.

    It’s unclear to me why Levinson isn’t targeting the filibuster instead. Abolishing it (while unlikely) would actually be easier than eliminating the veto since the filibuster is not constitutionally mandated, and doing so would have a similar — or perhaps greater — effect on the range of legislation that could be passed into law.

    (Note: All of Krehbiel’s results assume a unidimensional liberal-conservative policy space. See Charles Cameron’s Veto Bargaining for much more on the dynamics of vetoes and veto bargaining. And of course don’t forget that parties can pressure pivots into voting with them on key legislative issues.)

  • TNR on the Other Vietnam Syndrome

    The New Republic’s Spencer Ackerman has an excellent article in the current issue about the conservative tendency to blame opponents of misguided wars for US failure, which leads to the demonization of dissent that I’ve documented so often since 9/11. Here’s how his piece begins:

    At the beginning of August, President Bush introduced a war-weary American public to an old conservative slander disguised as a new approach to the Iraq war. Shifting from his earlier rhetoric of optimism, he gave a series of election-timed speeches that were noticeably grim. Bush no longer emphasized the prospects of success; rather, he spoke of the danger of defeat. “Some politicians look at our efforts in Iraq and see a diversion from the war on terror,” he said in a speech late last month. “If America were to pull out before Iraq can defend itself, the consequences would be absolutely predictable–and absolutely disastrous.” The villains responsible for such a disaster, his surrogates pointed out, wouldn’t be the insurgents in Baghdad or Falluja, but rather the Democrats in Washington, D.C., whom House Majority Leader John Boehner helpfully described as “more interested in protecting the terrorists than protecting the American people.”

    This latest political tactic has captured the conservative mood perfectly. In June 2005, The Wall Street Journal editorial page declared that “where the terrorists are gaining ground is in Washington.” Recently, this tune has become a chorus. In August, The Weekly Standard portrayed Connecticut Senate candidate Ned Lamont as the perfect embodiment of a fanatical antiwar sentiment sweeping the left. Its September 4 cover story, written by Harvard’s William J. Stuntz (who is also a tnr contributor) asked “will we choose to win in iraq?” as if a mere preference for victory could win a war. National Review, for its part, hosted a symposium on Iraq in its September 11 issue, in which not a single contributor recommended withdrawal. Instead, Robert D. Kaplan noted that the essential questions on Iraq were “homefront perceptions and a willingness to win”; Michael Rubin, a former Bush Pentagon analyst, seconded the notion, declaring, “The U.S. is losing in Iraq because American politicians and the general public have not decided they want or need to win.” Somehow, conservatives have come to believe that the main impediment to America’s battlefield fortunes exists not in Iraq, but in Cambridge, Berkeley, and the Upper West Side.

    On the right, the latter half of 2006 is feeling a lot like 1968, the year that the American public finally lost faith in the Vietnam war. And, just as they did then, conservatives are turning causality on its head: People aren’t growing disillusioned with the war because we’re not winning it; we’re not winning because people have grown disillusioned. After Vietnam, this analysis enabled the right to avoid the agonizing reappraisal of U.S. foreign policy that has been that war’s legacy for liberalism and the Democratic Party.

    But avoidance has its consequences as well. It’s true enough that, for more than 30 years, the left has not infrequently suffered from “Vietnam syndrome”–the assumption that any military engagement will be a moral disaster and a potential quagmire. But, though it has been less examined, the lesson the right took from Vietnam–that the true danger to national security is not misguided wars, but overzealous opposition to misguided wars–is, if anything, more dangerous. Call it the Other Vietnam Syndrome.

  • Futures market: Foley hurts GOP a lot

    How big a deal is the Mark Foley scandal? The price of the Tradesports contract for which party controls the House put the probability of the GOP retaining control as high as 58% on Friday. After Foley’s resignation, the price of the contract (which pays $1 if the GOP retains control) dropped dramatically, and it’s currently trading at a price equivalent to a 46% probability of continued GOP control:

    Foleydrop

  • WSJ: Tax cuts financing war on terror

    President Bush’s tax cuts reduce federal revenue, as his own economists have repeatedly acknowledged. But in the bizarro world of the Wall Street Journal, which believes otherwise, the Bush tax cuts are actually financing the war in Iraq and the war on terror:

    Republicans also deserve credit for financing the war, which is more than many Democrats say they’ll do if they run Capitol Hill. The extension for two more years, through 2010, of the 15% rate on dividends and capital gains will also help sustain the economic growth that is throwing off record revenues to pay for the war even as the budget deficit declines.

    Why haven’t we caught Osama bin Laden? Not enough tax cuts!

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  • Bush and Rove’s fart jokes

    Maureen Dowd highlights the maturity of the Bush White House in an anecdote drawn from Bob Woodward’s new book State of Denial:

    W. and Karl Rove “shared an array of fart jokes,” Mr. Woodward writes. A White House aide put a toy that made a flatulence sound under Karl’s chair for a morning meeting on July 7, 2005. When officials learned of the terrorist attacks in London that day, the prank was postponed. But several weeks later, “the device was placed under Rove’s chair and activated during the senior staff meeting. Everyone laughed.”

    When a senior administration official said the White House was run by “kids on Big Wheels, who talk politics and know nothing,” maybe he wasn’t speaking metaphorically!

    Correction 9:14 AM: Posting before my coffee kicks in is always a mistake. Per SomeCallMeTim’s comment below, it was “a senior White House official” who gave the “Big Wheels” quote to Ron Suskind, not (necessarily) John DiIulio as this post previously stated.

  • Bush claims he “sees the world the way it is”

    During a speech in Alabama yesterday, President Bush made what has to be his most unintentionally ironic statement ever:

    We are a nation at war. I wish I could report differently, but you need to have a President who sees the world the way it is, not the way somebody would hope it would be.

    “[S]ees the world the way it is”? This is the president whose administration has dissembled about and ignored expert opinion on issues ranging from the evidence that Iraq had an active nuclear weapons program to the economic effects of his tax cuts.

    Indeed, a senior adviser to President Bush bragged to Ron Suskind in 2002 that the administration “create[s] our own reality”:

    The aide said that guys like me were “in what we call the reality-based community,” which he defined as people who “believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.” I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. “That’s not the way the world really works anymore,” he continued. “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality — judiciously, as you will — we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors … and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.”

    Maybe President Bush’s statement is true in their reality! For the rest of us, the postmodern presidency continues…

  • The anti-democratic logic of Rudy Giuliani

    I hate statements like this one from Rudy Giuliani, who was reacting to the “Fox News Sunday” interview with President Clinton:

    “The idea of trying to cast blame on President Clinton is just wrong for many, many reasons, not the least of which is I don’t think he deserves it,” Giuliani said in response to a question after an appearance with fellow Republican Charlie Crist, who is running for governor. “I don’t think President Bush deserves it. The people who deserve blame for Sept. 11, I think we should remind ourselves, are the terrorists – the Islamic fanatics – who came here and killed us and want to come here again and do it.”

    The suggestion that we shouldn’t point fingers because the terrorists are the ones at fault is the same one Republicans used in 2002 to try to silence criticism of President Bush. Here’s what Trent Lott said then: “For us to be talking like our enemy is George W. Bush and not Osama bin Laden, that’s not right.”

    This idea is blatantly anti-democratic. Of course it’s legitimate to ask whether President Clinton and President Bush did enough to protect the American people. Such a question does not imply that they, rather than the terrorists, are the ones responsible for the attacks. Consider how absurd this idea is. By Giuliani’s logic, should we refuse to criticize the police for failing to prevent crime because that “the people who deserve blame” are the criminals? In a democracy, elected officials should be held accountable if they fail to uphold their responsibilities, and one of the president’s responsibilities is to protect the public from terrorism.

  • Fred Barnes claims Allen viable for ’08

    Writing on the Wall Street Journal op-ed page today, the Weekly Standard’s Fred Barnes makes the bizarre claim that George Allen remains a viable 2008 presidential contender:

    The curdled conventional wisdom on the race is twofold: Mr. Allen is still favored to win re-election, but he should give up any thought of seeking the presidency in 2008. But Mr. Allen refuses to budge. He won’t rule out a presidential race, and it remains very much in the cards.

    Many conservatives are souring on Virginia’s junior senator as a presidential candidate. Still: Should Mr. Allen overcome the media onslaught, effectively counter Mr. Webb’s call for a withdrawal from Iraq, finish the campaign without breaking ranks with President Bush, and win a slugfest by a modest margin, he may emerge as a tough-minded survivor. The press won’t like him any better, but he might earn the respect of Republican voters around the country. Candidates have been “misunderestimated” before, and stranger things have happened in politics.

    What? George Allen’s 2008 campaign is over before it began. Even if conservatives still liked him after the current fiasco, he’s not a competitive national candidate. The combination of his ugly racial history and the “macaca” incident will turn off moderate voters and energize Democrats’ African American base regardless of whether the latest allegations about his use of the N-word turn out to be true. GOP donors and activists will realize this and not support Allen’s candidacy.

    Currently, the Tradesports futures market puts the probability of Allen receiving the 2008 GOP presidential nomination at about five percent. If I’m wrong and Allen actually has a shot, then Barnes (and anyone else) should buy some shares now…

  • CFIF gets religion on AIDS

    Maybe Hillary Clinton’s decision to run for president has some advantages.

    The Center for Individual Freedom, a conservative group whose main contribution to the AIDS debate has been to oppose efforts to reduce patent protections for anti-retroviral drugs in the developing world, recently sent out an email (PDF) lobbying for the passage of the Ryan White CARE Act, a domestic AIDS treatment bill, in Congress. The reason? Hillary is holding up the bill because of cuts it makes in funding to New York. And if she’s against it, they’re for it.

    Here’s how the email begins:

    Dear Fellow Activist,

    What if I told you that carefully crafted, bipartisan legislation to bring vital, life-saving and enhanced care to those suffering from the ravages of AIDS was being held up by a handful of United States Senators?

    What if I told you that the Senator who is leading the charge to block this legislation has herself said, “I believe we need to take bold steps to confront and eradicate AIDS and support those living with HIV…?”

    And what if I told you that this outrageous act of hypocrisy and betrayal against HIV/AIDS victims is based on raw political self-interest — to favor a single city represented by the Senator in question over AIDS victims across the country?

    You would be as outraged as I am.

    And you’ll be even more outraged when you hear that the Senator holding the renewal of the Ryan White CARE Act hostage — along with the lives and well-being of thousands of HIV/AIDS victims across the country — is none other Mrs. Compassion herself: Hillary Rodham Clinton.

    If this is what it takes to get conservative activists fired up about AIDS treatment in the US, I’ll take it.