Brendan Nyhan

  • How Dick Gephardt is like Colin Farrell

    His political career may be over, but Dick Gephardt lives on as a symbol of mediocrity in today’s New York Times review of “Miami Vice”:

    Mr. [Colin] Farrell, however, is a movie star only in the sense that Richard Gephardt is president of the United States. He’s always looked good on paper, and he’s picked up some endorsements along the way — from Oliver Stone, Joel Schumacher and Terrence Malick, among others — but somehow it has never quite happened.

    Ouch. That’s not the kind of comparison that Farrell is looking for. But I like the idea. If Farrell’s career tanks, maybe he and Gephardt can team up for a buddy cop movie…

    FarrellDickg

  • The arrogant Clinton machine

    In a New Republic article on the rivalry between Howard Dean and Hillary Clinton, a “Clinton strategist” touts how she will have her “own field staff, starting way before the primaries begin, right through November 7”:

    Clinton’s camp is seeking to change this landscape. Its strategy appears to be twofold. First, it is laying the groundwork to circumvent the DNC in the event that Clinton wins the nomination. Her advisers see Dean as a maverick, and they want to depend on him as little as possible during the general election. “The DNC is going to be peripheral,” says one Clinton strategist. “We are going to have our own field staff, starting way before the primaries begin, right through November 7.” He points out that she is prepared to reject public financing during the primaries and the general election. (Clinton does not lack for money: She has raised $32.2 million for her Senate reelection and has $22 million in the bank–all transferable to her presidential campaign, according to PoliticalMoneyLine.) This would allow her to keep the field staff she develops during the primaries on her payroll during the general election–instead of shifting it to the DNC, as previous candidates have done. Plus, in a move widely and correctly interpreted as a rebuke to Dean, Clinton strategist Harold Ickes recently established a private voter database to compete with a similar database being built by the DNC. Ickes’s move–as well as Clinton’s formidable array of experienced advisers, including Terry McAuliffe, Howard Wolfson, James Carville, Mark Penn, and others–will give Clinton added independence from the DNC.

    A little arrogant, are we? Clinton’s strategists ought to spend less time worrying about how they will isolate the DNC during the general election and more time worrying about the primaries. They’re going to have a fight on their hands when Democrats recognize her weakness as a candidate and start to think about spending another four years in the political wilderness.

  • The sociology of MoveOn.org

    This quote from today’s MoveOn.org email captures the group perfectly (PDF):

    Dear MoveOn member,

    Did you hear NPR this morning? They released a new poll showing that in the top 50 House races, voters choose Democrats over Republicans by a big margin.

    Here’s a better question: how many MoveOn members don’t listen to NPR?

    (PS The NPR story and full poll results [PDF] are worth a look.)

  • Nifong opponent declines to run

    Despite qualifying for the ballot, Durham county commissioner Lewis Cheek has
    announced that he won’t take on District Attorney Mike Nifong in November despite Nifong’s handling of the disastrous lacrosse prosecution:

    Durham lawyer Lewis Cheek announced this morning that he will not run against District Attorney Mike Nifong, even though Cheek’s name will appear on the ballot in November.

    Cheek said he did not want to harm his three-year-old law practice and its other lawyers and employees by pulling out to serve as District Attorney.

    “I will not run a campaign, and I will not serve as District Attorney,” Cheek said.

    Still, Cheek said he would vote for himself in the fall, and encouraged others who are dissatisfied with Nifong to do the same. If Cheek wins, he said he would decline the office, leaving it up to Gov. Mike Easley to appoint Durham’s next District Attorney. It was Easley who appointed Nifong to the job last year after former District Attorney Jim Hardin became a judge.

    The odds of beating Nifong without an active campaign against him are very low. This is bad news.

  • Bush’s tricky employment/net worth stats

    In an email sent to RNC supporters (PDF), President Bush touts the state of the economy using some of his trademark misleading economic statistics:

    Because Republicans acted and had an economic recovery plan, we have created strong economic growth and nearly 5.3 million new jobs in the last two and half years; the national unemployment rate has dropped to 4.6% — that is lower than the average rate of the 1960s, 1970s, the 1980s and the 1990s; productivity is up and household net worth is at an all-time high.

    But as I’ve noted, the employment and net worth statistics are highly misleading.

    First, Bush measures job growth from 2004 (“last two and a half years”) even though he took office in January 2001 and passed his first tax cut in June of that year. When we look at job growth over the course of his term, the pictures is more grim (note that this graphic is from my post in December 2005 and hasn’t been updated):

    Nonfarm_2

    Similarly, I showed that the growth in household net worth is heavily concentrated at the top of the distribution in these two charts:

    Fivelines_1

    Threelines

    Sadly, the national press will probably print these claims without fact-checking them…

  • Hillary: No progress in five years

    Via Andrew Sullivan, a new Gallup analysis shows that Hillary Clinton’s favorability profile has remained largely static for the last five years (requires viewing an ad):

    Hillaryunfavs

    The story is largely the same as the one from the graphic I posted a year ago:

    Hillary2_2_1

    This is bad news for Hillary supporters because she’s been getting a pass from the right for most of this time. She has enjoyed the most favorable political environment she will ever face. And yet the public did not warm to her.

    As I wrote a few weeks ago, her favorability ratings are worse than her rivals for the 2008 presidential nomination. Why would we believe that someone who underperformed Al Gore by five points in New York in 2000 and has made little progress since is suddenly going to become a strong candidate?

  • 50% think Saddam had WMD?

    Via Kevin Drum, a new Harris poll suggests that misperceptions about Iraqi WMD have increased during the last year:

    Despite being widely reported in the media that the U.S. and other countries have not found any weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, surprisingly; more U.S. adults (50%) think that Iraq had such weapons when the U.S. invaded Iraq. This is an increase from 36 percent in February 2005.

    The Washington Times suggests that the increase was driven by the (bogus) Hoekstra/Santorum claim that recovering degraded 1980s shells counts as finding WMD, which was widely hyped. It’s possible. Any other ideas?

  • Washington Post: Bellwethers

    The Washington Post has put together a nice table dividing key Congressional races into a series of categories based on the key issues in each one (example: “Anxious Suburbs » Will the Iraq War come home in November?”). Definitely worth a look.

  • Revisiting the nature/nurture debate on IQ

    This week’s New York Times Magazine includes a fascinating article about the flaws in the research on the determinants of intelligence.

    Previously, as the article points out, studies had shown that “a person’s I.Q. is remarkably stable and that about three-quarters of I.Q. differences between individuals are attributable to heredity” — a depressing finding for social reformers. But the article shows that this conclusion was based on a flawed methodological approach that is being overturned in new research that includes twins from poor families:

    A new generation of studies shows that genes and environment don’t occupy separate spheres — that much of what is labeled “hereditary” becomes meaningful only in the context of experience… If heredity defines the limits of intelligence, the research shows, experience largely determines whether those limits will be reached. And if this is so, the prospects for remedying social inequalities may be better than we thought.

    …In combing through the research [on IQ], [UVA’s Eric Turkheimer] noticed that the twins being studied had middle-class backgrounds. The explanation was simple — poor people don’t volunteer for research projects — but he wondered whether this omission mattered.

    Together with several colleagues, Turkheimer searched for data on twins from a wider range of families. He found what he needed in a sample from the 1970’s of more than 50,000 American infants, many from poor families, who had taken I.Q. tests at age 7. In a widely-discussed 2003 article, he found that, as anticipated, virtually all the variation in I.Q. scores for twins in the sample with wealthy parents can be attributed to genetics. The big surprise is among the poorest families. Contrary to what you might expect, for those children, the I.Q.’s of identical twins vary just as much as the I.Q.’s of fraternal twins. The impact of growing up impoverished overwhelms these children’s genetic capacities. In other words, home life is the critical factor for youngsters at the bottom of the economic barrel. “If you have a chaotic environment, kids’ genetic potential doesn’t have a chance to be expressed,” Turkheimer explains. “Well-off families can provide the mental stimulation needed for genes to build the brain circuitry for intelligence.”

    This provocative finding was confirmed in a study published last year. An analysis of the reading ability of middle-aged twins showed that even half a century after childhood, family background still has a big effect — but only for children who grew up poor. Meanwhile, Turkheimer is studying a sample of twins who took the National Merit Scholarship exam, and the results are the same. Although these are the academic elite, who mostly come from well-off homes, variations in family circumstances still matter: children in the wealthiest households have the greatest opportunity to develop all their genetic capacities. The better-off the family, the more a child’s genetic potential is likely to be, as Turkheimer puts it, “maxed out.”

    In addition, studies of the effect of environment on adopted twins placed in different homes used a skewed sample as well:

    …[R]esearchers in France noted a shortcoming in these adoption studies and set out to correct it. Since poor families rarely adopt, those investigations have had to focus only on youngsters placed in well-to-do homes. What’s more, because most adopted children come from poor homes, almost nothing is known about adopted youngsters whose biological parents are well-off.

    What happens in these rare instances of riches-to-rags adoption? To answer that question, two psychologists, Christiane Capron and Michel Duyme, combed through thousands of records from French public and private adoption agencies. “It was slow, dusty work,” Duyme recalls. Their natural experiment mimics animal studies in which, for instance, a newborn rhesus monkey is taken from its nurturing biological mother and handed over to an uncaring foster mother. The findings are also consistent: how genes are expressed depends on the social context.

    Regardless of whether the adopting families were rich or poor, Capron and Duyme learned, children whose biological parents were well-off had I.Q. scores averaging 16 points higher than those from working-class parents. Yet what is really remarkable is how big a difference the adopting families’ backgrounds made all the same. The average I.Q. of children from well-to-do parents who were placed with families from the same social stratum was 119.6. But when such infants were adopted by poor families, their average I.Q. was 107.5 — 12 points lower. The same holds true for children born into impoverished families: youngsters adopted by parents of similarly modest means had average I.Q.’s of 92.4, while the I.Q.’s of those placed with well-off parents averaged 103.6. These studies confirm that environment matters — the only, and crucial, difference between these children is the lives they have led.

  • Newsweek gets Bush/Putin exchange wrong

    This week’s Newsweek contains a long cover story about President Bush’s visit to the G8 summit and his response to the Mideast crisis. But for all the tick-tock details, the article offers very little insight, as Greg Sargent points out. More importantly, it mischaracterizes a major incident during Bush’s trip — his repartee with Vladimir Putin about Iraq’s democracy:

    Within minutes the two presidents are standing in a cramped hallway, awaiting their cue. Bush sees Putin clutching some notes, and leans over. “Are you sure you want to say that?” he quips. Putin looks up and glares, then gets the joke. Bush straightens his red tie and pats Putin on the back. “Have fun,” he says as they walk into the cloud of camera flashes.

    Bush doesn’t know that Putin has been readying a joke of his own. When asked a predictable question about the state of Russia’s democracy, Putin pounces: “We certainly would not want to have the same kind of democracy as they have in Iraq, I will tell you quite honestly.” There are guffaws from the Russian media and gasps from American reporters. Struggling to hear the translation, Bush joins in the laughter before catching himself. “Just wait,” he snaps back, and his smile fades.

    This language suggests that the “predictable question about the state of Russia’s democracy” went to Putin. But it actually went primarily to Bush, whose jab at Russia prompted Putin’s reply — here’s the transcript:

    Q President Bush, you said that you planned to raise, in a respectful way, your concerns about Russian democracy with President Putin. How did that conversation go? And I know you’ve already talked a lot about the U.S.-Russian relationship, but I’m wondering if both of you could elaborate on that, and how the differences of opinion over the democracy are affecting the relationship.

    PRESIDENT BUSH: It’s not the first time that Vladimir and I discussed our governing philosophies. I have shared with him my desires for our country, and he shared with me his desires for his. And I talked about my desire to promote institutional change in parts of the world like Iraq where there’s a free press and free religion, and I told him that a lot of people in our country would hope that Russia would do the same thing.

    I fully understand, however, that there will be a Russian-style democracy. I don’t expect Russia to look like the United States. As Vladimir pointedly reminded me last night, we have a different history, different traditions. And I will let him describe to you his way forward, but he shared with me some very interesting thoughts that I think would surprise some of our citizens…

    [Bush continues to speak for several more paragraphs.]

    PRESIDENT PUTIN: We certainly would not want to have the same kind of democracy as they have in Iraq, I will tell you quite honestly. (Laughter.)

    PRESIDENT BUSH: Just wait.

    At the end of his question, the reporter did ask Putin to “elaborate” on “how the differences of opinion over the democracy are affecting the relationship,” but the question was primarily directed to Bush, and Putin’s response was a direct response to Bush’s statement about Iraqi democracy.

    What’s the point of insider access if you can’t describe major public events accurately?