Brendan Nyhan

  • Wash. Times: McCain is GOP frontrunner

    The Washington Times is an awful journalistic institution, but it’s a pretty reliable source of intelligence on GOP infighting. So their recent story touting John McCain as the frontrunner for the 2008 GOP presidential nomination is a big deal:

    Some top Republicans at odds with Sen. John McCain on core conservative issues say privately that the party’s 2008 presidential nomination is “his to lose.”

    They cite the Arizona senator’s head start in fundraising, a primary calendar that is shaping up in his favor and a growing belief that he enjoys the tacit support of President Bush.

    In state after state, Mr. McCain has been passing out money to Republican candidates for other offices, to state party organizations and even to Republican county chairmen. Extending such largess to the county level is unheard of in pre-nomination campaign maneuvering, party officials say.

    If conservatives were gearing up to smear McCain with agitprop, the Washington Times story would be more like the recent Newsmax story that uses McCain’s famous temper to portray him as unstable.

    I’ve predicted that conservatives would deny McCain the nomination all along. But with the GOP increasingly fearful of losing the presidency, and McCain-hating enforcer Grover Norquist losing influence due to his involvement in the Jack Abramoff scandal, it looks like I might turn out to be wrong…

  • Reviewing the political fundamentals

    An overview of the political landscape:

    Polls

    2006 generic ballot:
    Time (6/27-6/29) — 35% Republican, 47% Democrat
    USA Today/Gallup (6/23-6/25) — 38% R, 54% D
    ABC/Washington Post (6/22-6/25) — 39% R, 52% D
    Diageo/Hotline (6/21-6/25) — 36% R, 41% D
    Pew (6/14-6/19) — 39% R, 51% D

    Congress job rating:
    Time (6/27-6/29) — 31% approve, 55% disapprove
    Diageo/Hotline (6/21-6/25) — 30% A, 62% D
    FOX/Opinion Dynamics (6/13-6/14) — 29% A, 59% D
    NBC/Wall Street Journal (6/9-6/12) — 23% A, 64% D
    CBS (6/10-6/11) — 26% A, 60% D

    President Bush job rating:
    Time (6/27-6/29) — 35% approve, 59% disapprove
    FOX/Opinion Dynamics (6/27-6/28) — 41% A, 50% D
    L.A. Times/Bloomberg (6/24-6/27) — 41% A, 56% D
    USA Today/Gallup (6/23-6/25) — 37% A, 60% D
    ABC/Washington Post 6/22-6/25) — 38% A, 60% D

    Charles Franklin’s latest presidential approval graph:

    Timeapprovaltrend

    (Note: Some of these polls differ in who they sample – see links for details.)

    Tradesports share values

    2006 Congressional elections
    -GOP keep control of House – 54.2
    -GOP keep control of Senate – 81.6

    GOP House shares time trend:

    Gophouse071006

    GOP Senate shares time trend:

    Gopsenate071006

    2008 GOP presidential nomination
    -John McCain – 40.0
    -George Allen – 17.0
    -Rudy Giuliani – 13.3
    -Mitt Romney – 11.1
    -Condoleezza Rice – 5.0

    McCain shares time trend:

    Mccain71006

    2008 Democratic presidential nomination
    -Hillary Clinton – 43.2
    -Mark Warner – 20.1
    -Al Gore – 18.0
    -John Edwards – 6.8
    -John Kerry – 2.9

    Clinton shares time trend:

    Clinton71006

    2008 presidential election winner
    -Democratic nominee – 49.0
    -GOP nominee – 48.3
    -Other candidate – 2.7

    (Note: All Tradesports share values represent the percentage likelihood of the event occurring.)

  • Coulter’s (alleged) plagiarism: Not the issue

    I have a hard time getting worked up about the Ann Coulter plagiarism investigation. It’s a relatively minor offense compared with her long record of factual deception and hateful rhetoric, yet it’s the only thing that could get her column killed in the bizarro world of journalistic “ethics.”

    Update 7/7 5:23 PM: Here’s the full list of alleged violations from TPM Muckraker. Not very exciting, though a few definitely cross the line.

  • Playing “the treason card” since 9/11

    Writing behind the Times Select firewall, Paul Krugman describes the assault on dissent since 9/11:

    But an almost equally important aspect of the project has been the attempt to create a political environment in which nobody dares to criticize the administration or reveal inconvenient facts about its actions. And that attempt has relied, from the beginning, on ascribing treasonous motives to those who refuse to toe the line. As far back as 2002, Rush Limbaugh, in words very close to those used by The Wall Street Journal last week, accused Tom Daschle, then the Senate majority leader, of a partisan “attempt to sabotage the war on terrorism.”

    Those of us who tried to call attention to this authoritarian project years ago have long marveled over the reluctance of many of our colleagues to acknowledge what was going on.

    Exactly right. If anything, Krugman underplays the severity of the rhetoric. Here’s an updated timeline of Republican attacks on dissent since the 2001 terrorist attacks (drawn from my previous posts on the subject):

    December 2001: In response to Democratic plans to question parts of the USA Patriot Act during a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing, John Ashcroft suggests that people who disagree with the administration’s anti-terrorism policies are on the side of the terrorists. “To those who pit Americans against immigrants, and citizens against non-citizens; to those who scare peace-loving people with phantoms of lost liberty, my message is this: Your tactics only aid terrorists, for they erode our national unity and diminish our resolve. They give ammunition to America’s enemies, and pause to America’s friends. They encourage people of good will to remain silent in the face of evil.”

    February 2002: Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle expresses mild disagreement with US anti-terror policies, saying US success in the war on terror “is still somewhat in doubt.” In response, Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) says that Daschle’s “divisive comments have the effect of giving aid and comfort to our enemies by allowing them to exploit divisions in our country.”

    May 2002: After the disclosure that President Bush received a general warning about possible Al Qaeda hijackings prior to 9/11, Democrats demand to know what other information the administration had before the attacks. In response, White House communications director Dan Bartlett says that the Democratic statements “are exactly what our opponents, our enemies, want us to do.”

    September 2002: Campaigning against Democrats who did not support his legislation to create the Department of Homeland Security (a department whose creation he had previously opposed), President Bush said that “the Senate is more interested in special interests in Washington and not interested in the security of the American people.”

    September 2004: As John Kerry steps up his criticism of the Bush administration’s handling of Iraq and the war on terror, Republicans repeatedly suggest that he is emboldening the enemy. Senator Zell Miller (D-GA) says that “while young Americans are dying in the sands of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan, our nation is being torn apart and made weaker because of the Democrats’ manic obsession to bring down our Commander in Chief.” President Bush says, “You can embolden an enemy by sending a mixed message… You send the wrong message to our troops by sending mixed messages.” And Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) claims that terrorists “are going to throw everything they can between now and the election to try and elect Kerry,” adding that Democrats are “consistently saying things that I think undermine our young men and women who are serving over there.”

    July 2005: Senator Dick Durbin states that a description of US interrogation procedures at the Guantanamo Bay detention facility sounds like something “done by Nazis, Soviets in their gulags, or some mad regime — Pol Pot or others.” Presidential adviser Karl Rove responds by suggesting that Durbin and other liberals seek to put US troops in danger, saying that “Al Jazeera now broadcasts the words of Senator Durbin to the Mideast, certainly putting our troops in greater danger. No more needs to be said about the motives of liberals.”

    November/December 2005: With critics of the war in Iraq growing increasingly vocal, Republicans lash out, suggesting that Democrats are encouraging the enemy and want to surrender to terrorists. President Bush says that “These baseless attacks send the wrong signal to our troops and to an enemy that is questioning America’s will.” Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ) states that “Many on the Democratic side have revealed their exit strategy: surrender” and Rep. Geoff Davis (R-KY) says that “[T]he liberal leadership have put politics ahead of sound fiscal and national security policy. And what they have done is cooperated with our enemies and are emboldening our enemies.”

    After DNC chairman Howard Dean says “The idea that we’re going to win this war is an idea that unfortunately is just plain wrong,” Republicans reiterate the same line of attack. House Speaker Dennis Hastert says Dean “made it clear the Democratic Party sides with those who wish to surrender” and GOP chairman Ken Mehlman says Dean’s statement “sends the wrong message to our troops, the wrong message to the enemy, the wrong message to the Iraqi people.”

    January 2006: President Bush suggests that “defeatists” on Iraq are disloyal by contrasting them with a “loyal opposition,” stating that the American people “know the difference between a loyal opposition that points out what is wrong, and defeatists who refuse to see that anything is right.”

    March 2006: Senator Russ Feingold introduces a motion to censure President Bush. In response, Republicans suggest that he is harming national security and endangering US troops. RNC chairman Ken Mehlman says that “Democrat leaders never miss an opportunity to put politics before our nation’s security” and that they would “would rather censure the President for doing his job than actually fight the War on Terror,” refers to “repeated Democrat attempts to weaken these efforts to fight the terrorists and keep American families safe,” and states that “Democrats should to be focused on winning the War on Terror, not undermining it with political axe-grinding of the ugliest kind.” Senator John Cornyn adds that the resolution would “make the jobs of our soldiers and diplomats harder and place them at greater risk.”

    June 2006: In response to Democratic calls for a timeline for withdrawal from Iraq, President Bush suggests that Democrats want to surrender. “There’s a group in the opposition party who are willing to retreat before the mission is done,” he said. “They’re willing to wave the white flag of surrender. And if they succeed, the United States will be worse off, and the world will be worse off.” However, Bush adviser Dan Bartlett is unable to name a single Democrat to which this description applies.

    Over and over, the treason card has been played to silence dissent since 9/11. And remember, this timeline only includes statements by the White House, Republicans in Congress, and the chairman of the Republican National Committee. A comparable timeline covering attacks on dissent by pundits and interest group leaders would run for tens of thousands of words, and include a range of nearly unspeakable vitriol, such as talk radio host Melanie Morgan’s suggestion that New York Times editor Bill Keller be sent to the gas chamber for treason.

    The combination of these attacks on dissent and the Bush administration’s assault on the press and the powers of the other branches of government is disturbing indeed.

    Update 7/7 1:53 PM: I added Bush’s 2002 attack on Democrats for not supporting Bush’s homeland security legislation per Peter Tenenbaum’s suggestion in comments. What else am I missing?

    Update 7/10 8:58 AM: I also added Karl Rove’s July 2005 attack on Dick Durbin and other liberals at the suggestion of Elizabeth in comments. Please keep them coming…

  • Drudge on NK missile: “aimed at Hawaii”

    Drudge headline: “REPORT: FAILED N. KOREAN MISSILE AIMED AT HAWAII.”

    The headline of the story Drudge linked to: “N. Korea missile aimed at area off Hawaii.”

    In the non-reality-based community, that’s apparently close enough.

    Update 7/7 5:26 PM: Drudge’s headline for the link, which is now small and black rather than giant and red, now says “Report: N. Korea missile aimed at area off Hawaii…”

  • When Affirmative Action Was White

    At last night’s final banquet of the Ralph Bunche Summer Institute, which prepares academically promising college juniors from historically underrepresented groups for graduate school in political science, Ira Katznelson of Columbia University (who is the president of the American Political Science Association) gave a fascinating talk about Southern politics that touched on something really important about the history of social programs in this country.

    Last year, Katznelson published a book called When Affirmative Action Was White: An Untold History of Racial Inequality in Twentieth-Century America. Here’s what he found, as summarized in a Washington Post op-ed from last September:

    It was during the administrations of Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman that such great progressive policies as Social Security, protective labor laws and the GI Bill were adopted. But with them came something else that was quite destructive for the nation: what I have called “affirmative action for whites.” During Jim Crow’s last hurrah in the 1930s and 1940s, when southern members of Congress controlled the gateways to legislation, policy decisions dealing with welfare, work and war either excluded the vast majority of African Americans or treated them differently from others.

    Between 1945 and 1955, the federal government transferred more than $100 billion to support retirement programs and fashion opportunities for job skills, education, homeownership and small-business formation. Together, these domestic programs dramatically reshaped the country’s social structure by creating a modern, well-schooled, homeowning middle class. At no other time in American history had so much money and so many resources been targeted at the generation completing its education, entering the workforce and forming families.

    But most blacks were left out of all this. Southern members of Congress used occupational exclusions and took advantage of American federalism to ensure that national policies would not disturb their region’s racial order. Farmworkers and maids, the jobs held by most blacks in the South, were denied Social Security pensions and access to labor unions. Benefits for veterans were administered locally. The GI Bill adapted to “the southern way of life” by accommodating itself to segregation in higher education, to the job ceilings that local officials imposed on returning black soldiers and to a general unwillingness to offer loans to blacks even when such loans were insured by the federal government. Of the 3,229 GI Bill-guaranteed loans for homes, businesses and farms made in 1947 in Mississippi, for example, only two were offered to black veterans.

    This is unsettling history, especially for those of us who keenly admire the New Deal and the Fair Deal. At the very moment a wide array of public policies were providing most white Americans with valuable tools to gain protection in their old age, good jobs, economic security, assets and middle-class status, black Americans were mainly left to fend for themselves. Ever since, American society has been confronted with the results of this twisted and unstated form of affirmative action.

    I had no idea that the New Deal was so racially exclusionary. It’s fascinating and disturbing stuff that Katznelson is exploring further in a new book project (the main subject of last night’s talk) about how Southern Democrats used their stranglehold on Congress from 1932-1952 to shape national policy.

  • Nifong challenger qualifies for November ballot

    Lewis Cheek, a county commissioner here in Durham, submitted enough signatures (including mine) to qualify for the November ballot:

    Lewis Cheek has enough signatures to get his name on the November ballot and run against the district attorney prosecuting the Duke lacrosse case. Now, the question is whether he will make the race.

    Supporters of a candidacy for the Democratic county commissioner and lawyer said they turned in about 10,000 petition signatures from registered voters to Durham County’s elections office by a noon deadline Friday.

    That was significantly more than the 6,303 signatures required by law, though Durham County elections director Mike Ashe said officials must certify the signatures.

    …Brown said only Cheek can say whether he will run against incumbent Democratic District Attorney Mike Nifong.

    Cheek has said he has not yet made up his mind, but authorized supporters to go ahead and collect signatures before Friday’s deadline for getting his name on the ballot.

    Let’s hope he decides to take the plunge. The other potential candidate, Steve Monks, failed to get enough signatures, which means Cheek would face Nifong in a two-way race — the only plausible scenario in which the DA could be defeated.

  • Bush’s attack on Congress and the press

    Today, I hope patriots of every ideological persuasion will read Jane Mayer’s disturbing investigation of the Bush administration’s views of presidential power under the Constitution. I knew Vice President Cheney and his subordinates supported a sweeping view of presidential power, but not to this extent:

    The Iran-Contra scandal substantially weakened Reagan’s popularity and, eventually, seven people were convicted of seventeen felonies. Cheney, who was then a Republican congressman from Wyoming, worried that the scandal would further undercut Presidential authority. In late 1986, he became the ranking Republican on a House select committee that was investigating the scandal, and he commissioned a report on Reagan’s support of the Contras. [Current Cheney chief of staff David S.] Addington, who had become an expert in intelligence law, contributed legal research. The scholarly-sounding but politically outlandish Minority Report, released in 1987, argued that Congress—not the President—had overstepped its authority, by encroaching on the President’s foreign-policy powers. The President, the report said, had been driven by “a legitimate frustration with abuses of power and irresolution by the legislative branch.” The Minority Report sanctioned the President’s actions to a surprising degree, considering the number of criminal charges that resulted from the scandal. The report also defended the legality of ignoring congressional intelligence oversight, arguing that “the President has the Constitutional and statutory authority to withhold notifying Congress of covert actions under rare conditions.” And it condemned “legislative hostage taking,” noting that “Congress must realize . . . that the power of the purse does not make it supreme” in matters of war.

    In short, Dick Cheney believes Congress overstepped its Constitutional authority in the Iran-Contra affair. Congress! (For more quotes from the minority report, see this PBS compendium.) Let’s review the executive summary of Independent Counsel Lawrence Welsh’s report:

    Independent Counsel concluded that:

    — the sales of arms to Iran contravened United States Government policy and may have violated
    the Arms Export Control Act (1)

    (1) Independent Counsel is aware that the Reagan Administration Justice Department took the
    position, after the November 1986 revelations, that the 1985 shipments of United States weapons
    to Iran did not violate the law. This post hoc position does not correspond with the
    contemporaneous advice given the President. As detailed within this report, Secretary of
    Defense Caspar W. Weinberger (a lawyer with an extensive record in private practice and the
    former general counsel of the Bechtel Corporation) advised President Reagan in 1985 that the
    shipments were illegal. Moreover, Weinberger’s opinion was shared by attorneys within the
    Department of Defense and the White House counsel’s office once they became aware of the
    1985 shipments. Finally, when Attorney General Meese conducted his initial inquiry into the
    Iran arms sales, he expressed concern that the shipments may have been illegal.

    — the provision and coordination of support to the contras violated the Boland Amendment ban
    on aid to military activities in Nicaragua;

    — the policies behind both the Iran and contra operations were fully reviewed and developed at
    the highest levels of the Reagan Administration;

    — although there was little evidence of National Security Council level knowledge of most of the
    actual contra-support operations, there was no evidence that any NSC member dissented from the
    underlying policy — keeping the contras alive despite congressional limitations on contra support;

    — the Iran operations were carried out with the knowledge of, among others, President Ronald
    Reagan, Vice President George Bush, Secretary of State George P. Shultz, Secretary of Defense
    Caspar W. Weinberger, Director of Central Intelligence William J. Casey, and national security
    advisers Robert C. McFarlane and John M. Poindexter; of these officials, only Weinberger and
    Shultz dissented from the policy decision, and Weinberger eventually acquiesced by ordering the
    Department of Defense to provide the necessary arms; and

    — large volumes of highly relevant, contemporaneously created documents were systematically
    and willfully withheld from investigators by several Reagan Administration officials.

    — following the revelation of these operations in October and November 1986, Reagan
    Administration officials deliberately deceived the Congress and the public about the level and
    extent of official knowledge of and support for these operations.

    In addition, Independent Counsel concluded that the off-the-books nature of the Iran and contra
    operations gave line-level personnel the opportunity to commit money crimes.

    Again, Dick Cheney looked at these violations of the law and concluded that Congress overstepped its bounds. And this is not a view he’s abandoned. To the contrary, as Mayer points out, “Cheney proudly cited this document” in December, saying, “If you want reference to an obscure text, go look at the minority views that were filed in the Iran-Contra committee, the Iran-Contra report, in about 1987… Part of the argument was whether the President had the authority to do what was done in the Reagan years.”

    And Cheney and Addington (known as “Cheney’s Cheney”) have apparently convinced President Bush of the wisdom of their views. Here’s how the adminstration’s legal decision-making process after 9/11 was described by Republican insiders:

    Participants in meetings in the White House counsel’s office, in the days immediately after September 11th, have described [Alberto] Gonzales sitting in a wingback chair, asking questions, while Addington sat directly across from him and held forth. “Gonzales would call the meetings,” the former high-ranking lawyer recalled. “But Addington was always the force in the room.” Bruce Fein said that the Bush legal team was strikingly unsophisticated. “There is no one of legal stature, certainly no one like Bork, or Scalia, or Elliot Richardson, or Archibald Cox,” he said. “It’s frightening. No one knows the Constitution—certainly not Cheney.”

    If you’re not scared yet, consider Fein’s views. As Mayer writes, he is “a Republican legal activist … who voted for Bush in both Presidential elections, and who served as associate deputy attorney general in the Reagan Justice Department.” Here are some excerpts from the article based on Fein’s statements:

    Bruce Fein… said that Addington and other Presidential legal advisers had “Addington and other Presidential legal advisers had ‘staked out powers that are a universe beyond any other Administration. This President has made claims that are really quite alarming. He’s said that there are no restraints on his ability, as he sees it, to collect intelligence, to open mail, to commit torture, and to use electronic surveillance. If you used the President’s reasoning, you could shut down Congress for leaking too much. His war powers allow him to declare anyone an illegal combatant. All the world’s a battlefield—according to this view, he could kill someone in Lafayette Park if he wants! It’s got the sense of Louis XIV: ‘I am the State.’”

    …The Republican legal activist Bruce Fein said, “What makes this so sinister is that the members of this Administration have unchecked power. They don’t care if the wiretapping is legal or not.” But the former high-ranking Administration lawyer suggested that the situation is more serious than an intentional infraction of the law. “It’s not that they think they’re skirting the law,” he said. “They think that this is the law.”

    Fein suggested that the only way Congress will be able to reassert its power is by cutting off funds to the executive branch for programs that it thinks are illegal. But this approach has been tried, and here, too, Addington has had the last word. John Murtha, the ranking Democrat on the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense, put a provision in the Pentagon’s appropriations bills for 2005 and 2006 forbidding the use of federal funds for any intelligence-gathering that violates the Fourth Amendment, which protects the privacy of American citizens. The White House, however, took exception to Congress’s effort to cut off funds. When President Bush signed the appropriations bills into law, he appended “signing statements” asserting that the Commander-in-Chief had the right to collect intelligence in any way he deemed necessary…

    Bruce Fein argues that Addington’s signing statements are “unconstitutional as a strategy,” because the Founding Fathers wanted Presidents to veto legislation openly if they thought the bills were unconstitutional. Bush has not vetoed a single bill since taking office. “It’s part of the balancing process,” Fein said. “It’s about accountability. If you veto something, everyone knows where you stand. But this President wants to do it sotto voce. He wants to give the image that he’s accommodating on torture, and then reserves the right to torture anyway.”

    David Addington is a satisfactory lawyer, Fein said, but a less than satisfactory student of American history, which, for a public servant of his influence, matters more. “If you read the Federalist Papers, you can see how rich in history they are,” he said. “The Founders really understood the history of what people did with power, going back to Greek and Roman and Biblical times. Our political heritage is to be skeptical of executive power, because, in particular, there was skepticism of King George III. But Cheney and Addington are not students of history. If they were, they’d know that the Founding Fathers would be shocked by what they’ve done.”

    And as The New Yorker’s David Remnick writes, this adminstration is simultaneously engaged in a systematic assault on the press:

    In recent months, the critique has grown more ominous. Cheney and other officials have attacked Dana Priest’s article in the Washington Post detailing the rendition of prisoners to secret jails in Europe and James Risen and Eric Lichtblau’s articles in the Times describing the government’s attempt to fight terrorism with warrantless domestic wiretaps. Aping the spirit, if not the élan, of his predecessor, Cheney called the articles disloyal, damaging to national security, and undeserving of the Pulitzer Prizes they won.

    Late last month, the Times published a long report by Lichtblau and Risen on the C.I.A.’s and the Treasury Department’s monitoring of an international banking database in Brussels to track the movement of funds by Al Qaeda. The Wall Street Journal and the Los Angeles Times very quickly followed with their own articles on the government’s monitoring of Al Qaeda’s financial transactions, which has been an open secret ever since it was trumpeted by––well, by George W. Bush, in mid-September, 2001. Infuriated that the editors of the Times had not acceded to blandishments to kill the story, Bush and Cheney, in a coördinated offensive, described the Times report as a disgrace and, outrageously, as a boon to further terror attacks.

    The ideological noise machine took it from there. A congressman, Peter King, and a senator, Jim Bunning, both Republicans, accused the Times of treason. King, whose contradictory nature once embraced the violent activities of the I.R.A., is now the chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security. Curiously, it was King who, in September of 2004, co-chaired a hearing so that a Treasury official could tell the world how the department’s programs were driving terrorists out of the banking system; now he speaks of employing the 1917 Espionage Act to investigate and try journalists. Last week, the House approved a resolution condemning the newspapers that published the banking story for placing “the lives of Americans in danger.” The resolution passed 227–183, almost completely along party lines. On the airwaves and in the blogosphere, it got uglier. Melanie Morgan, a shouter on northern California’s biggest talk radio station, told the San Francisco Chronicle that if Bill Keller, the executive editor of the Times, “were to be tried and convicted of treason, yes, I would have no problem with him being sent to the gas chamber.”

    The Bush Administration can’t really believe that these newspaper stories have undermined the battle against Al Qaeda; what’s more, it knows that over the decades papers like the Times have kept many stories and countless particulars secret when editors saw that it was in the interest of national security and military safety to do so. The Times banking story disclosed no leads, named no targets. To say that it risked lives is like saying that an article revealing that cops tap phones to monitor the activities of the Mafia is a gift to the Five Families of New York.

    The Bush Administration knows very well what it is doing and in what climate. The press––particularly the mainstream outlets the White House finds most irritating––is in a collective state of anxious transition, hurt by scandals (Congressman King was quick to mention Jayson Blair, the Times serial fabulist), by the appearance of a blizzard of new technologies and ideologized alternatives like Fox News, and by a general sense of economic, even existential, worry. The era of hegemonic networks and newspapers, of supremely confident Bradlees and Rosenthals, is a memory.

    In the wake of the Administration’s record of dishonesty and incompetence in Iraq and the consequent decline in the President’s domestic polling numbers, it is not hard to discern why the White House might find a convenient enemy in the editors of the Times: this is an election year. The assault on the Times is a no-lose situation for the White House. The banking story itself showed the Administration to be doing what it had declared it was doing from the start: concertedly monitoring the financial transactions of potential terrorists. At the same time, by smearing the Times for the delectation of the Republican “base,” the Administration could direct attention away from its failures, including, last week, the Supreme Court’s decision to block its plans to try Guantánamo detainees before military commissions.

    In the era of the Pentagon Papers, a war-weary White House went to the courts to stifle the press. You begin to wonder if the Bush White House, in its urgent need to find scapegoats for the myriad disasters it has inflicted, is preparing to repeat a dismal and dismaying episode of the Nixon years.

    Are we to have a government of laws or of men? That is the question we face as a country on this Fourth of July.

  • Can Hillary win in 2008?

    James Carville and Mark Penn, who is Hillary Clinton’s pollster, have written an op-ed in the Washington Post arguing that “if [Hillary] runs, she can win.”

    But as Matthew Yglesias argues, that sets “a mighty low bar”:

    She can win? Sure. Is she more likely to win than are plausible alternatives? The piece doesn’t say. Would she be a good President? Would she be better than the plausible Democratic alternatives? There’s nothing on that at all in the op-ed. Presumably the authors think the answer to at least one of those questions is “yes” but I’d like to hear the argument.

    In fact, the evidence is clear that Clinton would be a weak candidate. To the extent that the personal characteristics of the candidate matter (an open question in political science), Clinton is likely to underperform relative to your average Democratic candidate. Let’s consider the evidence.

    Carville and Penn tout Hillary’s success in New York, writing that Clinton won her Senate seat in New York in 2000 “by 12 percentage points” despite naysaying from pundits and $60 million being spent against her. But as I wrote before, Clinton matched Chuck Schumer’s 1998 margin while underperforming Al Gore by five points:

    [H]er 55%-43% win was not exactly a landslide. As the Almanac of American Politics 2002 points out, Chuck Schumer beat Al D’Amato by an almost identical margin of 55%-44% in the 1998 race for New York’s other Senate seat, and Hillary was riding the coattails of Al Gore, who won the state 60%-35%. According to Barone and company, when you break it down by region, she won New York City 74%-25%, lost in the suburbs 53%-45%, and lost upstate 51%-47%. The latter two numbers are pretty good, but again, compare her to Schumer — he won New York City 76%-23%, lost the suburbs 51%-49% and lost upstate 53%-45%. The figures are almost identical.

    The obvious conclusion is that Hillary did about as well as your average Democrat in a Democrat-leaning state. While things could have gone much worse given how polarizing she was, it proves almost nothing about her ability to win over voters in the the battleground states of the industrial Midwest, let alone the South.

    Carville and Penn also try to spin Hillary’s weak poll ratings:

    Hillary is the only nationally known Democrat (other than her husband) who has weathered the Republican assaults and emerged with a favorable rating above 50 percent (54 percent positive in the latest Post-ABC poll).

    Yes, she has a 42 percent negative rating, as do other nationally known Democrats. All the nationally unknown Democrats would likely wind up with high negative ratings, too, once they’d been through the Republican attack machine.

    The difference with Hillary is the intensity of her support.

    Pundits and fundraisers and activists may be unsure of whether Hillary can get elected president, but Democratic voters, particularly Democratic women and even independent women, are thrilled with the idea.

    The Post-ABC numbers that Carville and Penn tout are more grim than they suggest. The headline of the poll is “Clinton Does Well on Attributes, Lacks Crossover Appeal.” It shows that “[a]s many Americans strongly dislike as strongly like her (three in 10 in each case)” and that “42 percent wouldn’t even consider voting for her.” In addition, Clinton has high negatives with the independents Carville and Penn think she can win over — “Clinton’s unfavorable rating among this crucial group is 46 percent.”

    It’s also not true that all nationally known Democrats have negatives as high as Hillary. John Edwards, for instance, has a much better favorability profile, with a recent Pew poll putting him at 47 percent favorable, 29 percent unfavorable.

    And while Carville and Penn are right that the negatives of other candidates will rise as they come under attack, those candidates still have an important advantage over Hillary — they have an opportunity to avoid becoming such a polarizing figure. As I wrote previously, negative ads are uniquely effective if they draw on pre-existing stereotypes of a candidate:

    Negative stereotypes of Hillary have deep roots, and many voters are likely to revert to them once she comes under serious attack. I worked for a Nevada Senate candidate in 2000 (Ed Bernstein) who had similar image problems to Hillary. He was well-known to most Nevadans and had a highly defined, polarizing personality. Over the course of the campaign, we built up his favorable/unfavorable ratings from 21/33 in late 1999 to 44/36 in Sept. 2000, and pulled within four points of our opponent in a DSCC poll. But when the Republicans unloaded a million dollars in negative ads on us, all that went out the window. Voters snapped back to their initial perceptions of Bernstein, his unfavorables spiked over 50 percent, the DSCC dropped us, and the race was over. Hillary is a better politician than Bernstein, but I think the dynamics are likely to be similar. As I’ve said before, a bad economy could put her over the top, but the combination of a polarizing persona and a liberal track record is likely to be devastating to her chances.

    Remember, Hillary’s unfavorables are over 40 percent before she has come under serious attack by Republicans. What will happen when battleground states are saturated with negative advertisements? The sky is the limit. Independents will dislike her, and the GOP base will be energized (at a time when it might otherwise be demoralized).

    More broadly, the X-factor of the race is not female voters, as Carville and Penn claim, but voter fatigue with the extreme partisanship of contemporary Washington. Bill Clinton won in 1992 and George W. Bush won in 2000 promising to put old conflicts behind us and bring Democrats and Republicans together. We should not underestimate the power of that sort of rhetoric, disingenuous as it may sometimes be. Clinton’s election would seem to guarantee four more years of viciousness to voters, who know that the GOP will be gunning for her from day one.

    For all of these reasons, Hillary Clinton is a weak candidate. She can still win in a favorable environment, but compared to a generic Democrat, it’s hard to imagine how she can do anything but hurt her party’s prospects.

    Update 7/3 2:07 PM: To put Hillary’s negatives in comparative perspective, let’s see where she stands relative to Al Gore and John Kerry, the two previous Democratic presidential candidates. With 28 months to go before the 2008 election, her favorable/unfavorable rating is 54 percent favorable, 42 percent unfavorable according to the latest Post-ABC poll — a ratio of 1.3:1. By contrast, the Post-ABC poll from July 1998 — the comparable period for Gore — shows that his favorable/unfavorable rating was 54 percent to 26 percent even though he was the sitting vice president. That is a ratio of 2.1:1. And two polls from late 2002 show that John Kerry’s favorable/unfavorable ratings were 31 percent favorable, 7 percent unfavorable and 31 percent favorable, 13 percent unfavorable — ratios of 4.4:1 and 2.3:1, respectively.

    To sum up, Hillary Clinton is far more polarizing today than Al Gore was in 1998. And look what happened to Gore.

    (Postscript: Another problem with the op-ed, as Greg Sargent points out on his American Prospect blog, is that the Post failed to disclose that Penn is Clinton’s current pollster. Also, see The Atlantic’s insider’s poll from last July for more perspectives on Hillary’s candidacy.

    Update 7/3 10:52 AM: Sargent tells me that Atrios caught Penn’s lack of disclosure first.)

  • Bush’s “surrender” rhetoric

    In a speech on Monday, President Bush suggested that Democrats are going to “wave the white flag of surrender”:

    “There’s a group in the opposition party who are willing to retreat before the mission is done,” he said. “They’re willing to wave the white flag of surrender. And if they succeed, the United States will be worse off, and the world will be worse off.”

    But Think Progress notes that when asked about this statement, Bush adviser Dan Bartlett was unable to name a single Democrat to which this description applies:

    LAUER: The white flag of surrender — that’s a very dramatic and harsh expression to use against the Democrats. Have you heard any Democrats calling for the white flag of surrender?

    BARTLETT: Well, I have heard a lot of Democrats call this President a liar, saying we’ve gone into Iraq for the wrong reasons, saying that he’s incompetent. So there is a lot of heated rhetoric in Washington. But what we see in the heart wrenching developments, when we see our 2 soldiers lose their lives in such a horrific way, is that we’re up against a very determined enemy. This is an epic struggle in which we have to be committed to winning.

    This kind of baseless accusation is classic Bush. As the Washington Post’s Dana Milbank pointed out in 2004 and the AP’s Jennifer Loven reiterated in 2006, he has a penchant for attacking straw men. Here are some examples from Milbank:

    In a speech on May 21 mentioning the importance of integrity in government, business and the military, Bush veered into a challenge to unidentified “people” who practice moral relativism. “It may seem generous and open-minded to say that everybody, on every moral issue, is equally right,” Bush said, at Louisiana State University. “But that attitude can also be an excuse for sidestepping life’s most important questions.”

    No doubt. But who’s made such arguments? Hannibal Lecter? The White House declined to name names.

    On May 19, Bush was asked about a plan by his Democratic opponent, Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), to halt shipments that are replenishing emergency petroleum reserves. Bush replied by saying we should not empty the reserves — something nobody in a responsible position has proposed. “The idea of emptying the Strategic Petroleum Reserve would put America in a dangerous position in the war on terror,” Bush said. “We’re at war.”

    The president has used a similar technique on the stump, when explaining his decision to go to war in Iraq in light of the subsequent failure to find stockpiles of forbidden weapons. In the typical speech, Bush explains the prewar intelligence indicating Saddam Hussein had such weapons, and then presents in inarguable conclusion: “So I had a choice to make: either trust the word of a madman, or defend America. Given that choice, I will defend America every time.”

    And here are some from Loven:

    “Some look at the challenges in Iraq and conclude that the war is lost and not worth another dime or another day,” President Bush said recently.

    Another time he said, “Some say that if you’re Muslim you can’t be free.”

    “There are some really decent people,” the president said earlier this year, “who believe that the federal government ought to be the decider of health care … for all people.”

    It’s also a classic Bush tactic to amp up his suggestions that Democrats don’t care about national security before an election, as he is doing now:

    Bush’s tone has turned tougher as he appears at more political events. At a Washington fundraiser this month, he said it was important that lawmakers “not wave the white flag of surrender” without asserting that any of them were actually doing so. In his appearance in this St. Louis suburb, he said directly that some Democrats want to surrender, adopting the more cutting approach of his senior political adviser, Karl Rove.

    As we wrote in All the President’s Spin on p. 116, Bush progressively amped up his attacks on Democrats in 2002 for not supporting his legislation to create the Department of Homeland Security (a department whose creation he had previously opposed). On Sept. 5, he said, “I am not going to accept a bill where the Senate micromanages, where the Senate shows they’re more interested in special interest[s] in Washington and not interested in the security of the American people” – a loaded hypothetical. The same day, he said in a different speech that there are senators in Washington who are “not enough concerned about the security of the American people.” But by Sept. 23, he was going much further, stating directly that “the Senate is more interested in special interests in Washington and not interested in the security of the American people.”

    After almost six years, we shouldn’t be surprised when he uses these tactics again. They worked for a long time. But will they work now that his 9/11 popularity boost has worn off?