Brendan Nyhan

  • Margin of error alert: The Pelosi/Cheney poll

    Drudge, ABC’s Jonathan Karl (guest-writing Mike Allen’s Playbook at Politico), FoxNews.com, and National Review’s Jim Geraghty all claim that a new Gallup poll shows that Dick Cheney is more popular than Nancy Pelosi:

    DRUDGE: “GALLUP: Cheney more popular than Pelosi!”

    KARL: “Liz will like this: Gallup puts former Vice President Cheney’s popularity slightly above Nancy Pelosi’s.”

    FOXNEWS.COM: “A new Gallup poll out Friday showed Pelosi’s favorability ratings are lower than that of former Vice President Dick Cheney, a popular target for Bush administration critics.”

    GERAGHTY: “Indeed, Nancy Pelosi is less popular than Dick Cheney.”

    Here are the actual results of the poll in question:
    Gallup-pelosi-cheney

    While Gallup does estimate that 37% of Americans have a favorable impression of Dick Cheney and 34% have a favorable impression of Nancy Pelosi, the poll has a 3% margin of error, which means we can’t be confident that the difference between those numbers is statistically significant. In addition, the poll also estimates that Cheney has somewhat higher unfavorable ratings than Pelosi (though, again, we can’t be confident that the difference is statistically significant). If we take Pelosi and Cheney’s unfavorable ratings into account as well, the ratio of favorable to unfavorable ratings are almost identical — 34/50 = .680 for Pelosi, 37/54 = .685 for Cheney.

    Sadly, these journalists are making a common mistake — the quantitative illiteracy of the press means that minor differences in poll numbers are often hyped without regard for the margin of error. Can’t ABC hire an undergrad stats major to be an intern or something?

    Update 6/5 11:08 PM: Jennifer Rubin at Commentary Magazine did the same thing — the headline of her post is “Cheney Is More Popular Than Pelosi.” No!

  • Marshall’s Khmer Rouge analogy

    Josh Marshall, who recently derided the failed GOP movement to call the Democrats the “Democrat Socialist” party, engaged in some absurd labeling of his own in a post mockingly titled “Khmer Rush Strikes Again.” The title compares Rush Limbaugh and his GOP supporters to the genocidal Khmer Rouge regime that killed more than one million people during its rule of Cambodia.

    Marshall is a talented journalist who has increasingly engaged in misleading or inflammatory rhetoric as his blog has become more partisan (including likening Rudy Giuliani’s hand gestures to those of Joseph Goebbels). Unfortunately, the tactic of comparing domestic political opponents with hated political figures and regimes has become increasingly common across the political spectrum in recent years. These tactics poison rational debate and minimize the crimes of the hated figures and crimes being invoked.

    Update 6/3 11:21 AM: Matthew Yglesias agrees:

    I kind of think this is a funny pun, but given that liberals everywhere raised a hew and cry about various conservative efforts to label Barack Obama the second coming of Stalin or Hitler I think maybe Josh Marshall should have kept this one to himself.

  • The threat of political meddling in GM

    President Obama and his economic team are obviously deeply ambivalent about their decisions to acquire control of major corporations like GM. They have repeatedly insisted that they will limit their involvement in management decisions and seek to liquidate the government’s stakes in these companies as soon as possible.

    For instance, here’s what President Obama said today about government influence on the management of GM:

    What we are not doing — what I have no interest in doing — is running GM. GM will be run by a private board of directors and management team with a track record in American manufacturing that reflects a commitment to innovation and quality. They — and not the government — will call the shots and make the decisions about how to turn this company around. The federal government will refrain from exercising its rights as a shareholder in all but the most fundamental corporate decisions. When a difficult decision has to be made on matters like where to open a new plant or what type of new car to make, the new GM, not the United States government, will make that decision.

    In short, our goal is to get GM back on its feet, take a hands-off approach, and get out quickly.

    The problem, however, is that the federal government can influence management decisions concerning plant locations, fuel efficiency of new models, etc., even if Obama claims that it will not do so. As a result, members of Congress are already lobbying to influence those decisions. Even when the administration does not weigh in directly, the management of GM will be forced to consider what issues might draw political attention and adjust its strategy accordingly.

    The Wall Street Journal reports that “President Barack Obama and his aides say they will shield GM from outside pressure,” but this approach is unlikely to work when tough choices have to be made. The administration has already taken the most important steps necessary to give the company a chance to succeed by reducing its debt and pension burdens and infusing new capital into the company. Shouldn’t the government now bind itself to the mast and directly forswear intervention in the company’s decisions? For instance, after voting for a new board of directors, the Obama administration could transfer control of the government’s shares to a Federal Reserve-type board of independent experts. This step would free the administration of de facto responsibility for GM’s decisions and insulate the President from any resulting fallout. By contrast, political meddling is likely to hinder the company’s efforts to return to profitability, which would in turn harm the administration and the country.

    Update 6/2 9:47 AM: Here’s a bad sign from the Detroit News (via the WSJ):

    [Detroit Mayor Dave] Bing, who said he feels bad for the thousands of people who will lose their jobs at the company that sought bankruptcy protection in federal court today, said he received a call Sunday night from Obama “informing me of his support for GM to stay in the city of Detroit with its headquarters at the Renaissance (Center).”

    Surely the company’s headquarters location is not one of the “most fundamental corporate decisions.” I’m sure it is tempting to exploit the government’s control for political purposes in this way, but in the long term the administration is only hurting itself. If GM doesn’t return to profitability quickly, the government will be forced to hold its stake in the company longer, make less money (or lose more), and potentially could even be forced to contribute additional funds to keep the company afloat. It’s a lose-lose.

    Update 6/2 2:01 PM: Matthew Yglesias notes that there’s no way for the administration to fully bind its hands:

    This might be a good idea. But it’s worth emphasizing that even this doesn’t really solve the problem. The Fed’s independence, after all, is in many ways nominal. There’s nothing stopping congress from changing the laws that govern the Fed—including the provisions making it “independent.” Thus, in principle, a Fed chair can be swayed by informal political pressure. The reason the Fed is independent in practice is that Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan built a strong political consensus around the idea of Fed independence so politicians don’t want to be seen as undermining it.

    Earlier Fed chairs were much more inclined to do the bidding of the Johnson and Nixon administrations and this was a major contributor to the super-high inflation that emerged in the 1970s.

    It is true that the Fed’s independence could potentially be revoked by Congress (one of my advisers, Mike Munger, co-authored a paper modeling the extent to which the Fed can act freely given these political constraints [gated]). However, such an action has not been observed in practice because of the structure of the American political system, which restricts government action through a series of veto points. While not providing complete protection from political influence, this system provides substantially more independence than would be possible for a normal government agency under control of the president.

    A similar principle applies here. If the Obama administration could pass legislation creating an independent board to administer the government’s shares, any decision to revoke the board’s charter would be subject to a filibuster, requiring an unlikely sixty votes to meddle in the decisions of a private corporation. Again, the level of protection would not be absolute, but it would be an improvement from the status quo.

    Update 6/5 10:20 AM: Via Greg Mankiw, here’s another example of political meddling reported by the Boston Globe:

    General Motors Corp. will delay the closing of a Norton parts distribution center it planned to shutter by the end of the year, according to US Representative Barney Frank. The extension will temporarily preserve about 80 jobs.

    The Norton warehouse is now expected stay open through July 2010, Frank said.

    As part of its bankruptcy and government-backed restructuring, GM plans to close 14 US manufacturing plants and two other distribution centers by 2012. Workers at the Norton center learned Monday of its impending closing, the day the automaker filed for bankruptcy protection, said Mark Ridenour, the chairman of the United Auto Workers union that represents plant employees.

    …The plant manager received word yesterday that Frank had successfully lobbied GM chief executive Fritz Henderson to delay the closing, according to Ridenour.

    Frank said he met with Henderson on Wednesday to urge him to reevaluate the center’s value to GM. He said he also stressed the loss of jobs would hurt already struggling Massachusetts families.

    Frank, whose district includes Norton, said he told Henderson, “Look, I understand that these things have to happen but they don’t have to happen in the midst of the worst recession in years.”

    GM officials decided to delay the closing of the plant after analyzing their East Coast distribution network and realizing they would need more time for a “orderly wind down,” said spokeswoman Elaine Redd. She said the company has not set an exact date for the closing.

    Frank has tremendous leverage over Henderson because he is the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. Insulating the company from this sort of lobbying is going to be vital to getting GM back on its feet.

    Update 6/15 10:46 AM: More evidence of political meddling from the New York Times:

    Auto dealers accustomed to negotiating sales on their car lots clustered in the Capitol instead this week, looking to their trusty, neighborhood lawmakers to do some hard bargaining for them.

    With about 2,000 Chrysler and General Motors dealers losing their franchises as the companies retrench, the dealers are pressing Congress to reverse what they see as an unfair process forcing some profitable businesses to close or stop selling new autos, with no explanation from the manufacturers of why they were singled out…

    As they lobby Congress, angry dealers are finding an increasingly receptive audience in the House and Senate, where lawmakers say the mass termination of franchises by the bankrupt car companies is threatening tens of thousands of jobs, not to mention the civic fabric of communities where car dealerships are often a chief local institution…

    [T]he campaign on behalf of the dealers is also providing a test of one of the central criticisms of the government’s intrusion into the operations of many companies, from banks to insurers to auto giants. Even as they talk tough about the mismanagement of car companies, can members of Congress withstand political pressure and allow Chrysler and G.M. to make tough economic decisions that might hurt their own constituents?

    Answer: No.

  • Newt: Obama “defend[ing] terrorists”

    Continuing his return to the ugly tactics he helped popularize in the 1980s and 1990s, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich suggested on May 24’s “Meet the Press” that the Obama administration’s “highest priority” is to “find some way to defend terrorists”:

    MR. GREGORY: But, Senator Durbin, in this case you have not just Vice President Cheney, but the majority leader of the Senate saying, “No, we don’t want these detainees to come into prisons in the United States.”

    SEN. DURBIN: Now that President Obama has made it clear what his plan is, he’ll bring that to Congress. We have successfully tried terrorists in the United States. As I sit here today, we have 347 convicted terrorists secure in our incarceration in our facilities. We know that they can be tried and held safely. I’m sure the president will be able to work this out with members of Congress.

    MR. GREGORY: Speaker Gingrich.

    FMR. REP. NEWT GINGRICH, (R-GA): …[T]he question comes right down to, as Vice President Cheney said this week, what’s your highest priority? Is it to defend America and protect American lives, or is it to find some way to defend terrorists and to get terrorists involved in the criminal justice system?…

    This statement echoes Gingrich’s suggestion on May 10 that Obama administration officials were “prepared to take huge risks with Americans in order to defend terrorists” in previous pro bono legal work:

    GINGRICH: [W]hen you look at the Obama administration, the number of attorneys they have appointed who were defending alleged terrorists — I mean, there’s this weird pattern where the Bush people wanted to defend Americans and were pretty tough on terrorists. These guys [Obama officials] are prepared to take huge risks with Americans in order to defend terrorists.

    Like the many GOP attacks on dissent since 9/11, the point of these statements is to suggest that Obama and other Democrats who have sought to ensure a fair process for detainees are sympathetic to terrorists. It’s an ugly, ugly smear.

  • Sessions on threat to the Court’s “heritage”

    Memo to the Republican Party — when a senator with the ugly racial history of Jeff Sessions starts discussing the potential threat posed by Judge Sotomayor and others like her to the “heritage” of the Supreme Court, it makes me nervous.

    Here’s the quote:

    Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama, the ranking Republican on the Judiciary Committee, told Fox News that he was “uneasy with” Judge Sotomayor’s approach and expressed concern that if Mr. Obama appointed two or three more justices like her it would shape the court “in a way that would be different from our heritage so far.”

  • The crude reasoning of Dick Cheney

    Jon Chait points out the simplistic binary logic used by Dick Cheney in his recent speech on national security:

    Those are the basic facts on enhanced interrogations. And to call this a program of torture is to libel the dedicated professionals who have saved American lives, and to cast terrorists and murderers as innocent victims. [emphasis added]

    This is, of course, completely illogical. You can, obviously, torture a terrorist or a murderer, and nobody has suggested otherwise. But it’s a form of illogic that tells you a lot about Cheney’s style of thought. To object to the methods of torture used against terrorists is to declare them innocent. You’re either with them or against them. The notion that terrorists may be evil but nonetheless should not be tortured is an idea too complex for his brain to process. He is a complete moral simpleton.

    Indeed (though we obviously can’t know what Cheney’s brain is or is not able to process). And what’s even worse is that some of the people being tortured may not actually be “terrorists and murderers” in the first place.

  • Keith Olbermann reads Dick Cheney’s mind

    Bob Somerby (who continues to do yeoman’s work on the failures of MSNBC) catches Keith Olbermann engaging in some absurd faux mind-reading of Dick Cheney during an interview with Lawrence Wilkerson, Colin Powell’s former chief of staff:

    WILKERSON (5/21/09): So, he [Cheney] is frightened and he’s trying these very Orwellian tactics of using his own techniques and his own results, and accusing his opponents of having perpetrated these techniques and results.

    OLBERMANN: Yes.

    WILKERSON: It’s insanity.

    OLBERMANN: Yes. Some psychologist could probably have a field day with the fact—
    Fortune_teller_2

    WILKERSON: A field day!

    OLBERMANN: —as when, when he was talking about water-boarding, he suddenly had a coughing fit, as if he couldn’t—as if water had gone down the wrong way.

    WILKERSON: Yes.

    It’s another step in the novelization of politics. Olbermann is proving that the market for gong show psychology extends across ideological lines.

  • The casual dishonesty of Karl Rove

    Not surprisingly, you can’t trust Karl Rove to use quotations in an honest manner. Here’s a passage from his latest Wall Street Journal column:

    On health care, Mr. Obama’s election ads decried “government-run health care” as “extreme,” saying it would lead to “higher costs.” Now he is promoting a plan that would result in a de facto government-run health-care system. Even the Washington Post questions it, saying, “It is difficult to imagine . . . benefits from a government-run system.”

    Actually, the passage from the Post editorial in question, while sympathetic to Rove’s argument, was addressing a more specific point about whether a public option can produce benefits while competing fairly with private plans:

    The argument for a public plan is that, without the need to extensively market itself or make a profit, it would do a better job of providing good health care at a reasonable cost, setting an important benchmark against which private insurers would be forced to compete. Even in a system where insurers are required to take all applicants, public plan advocates argue, incentives will remain for private plans to discourage the less healthy from signing up; a public plan is a necessary backstop. Moreover, if the playing field is level, public plan advocates argue, private insurers — and those who extol the virtues of a competitive marketplace — should have nothing to fear.

    We disagree. It is difficult to imagine a truly level playing field that would simultaneously produce benefits from a government-run system. While prescription drugs are not a perfect comparison, the experience of competing plans in the Medicare prescription drug arena suggests that a government-run option is not essential to energize a competitive system that has turned out to cost less than expected.

    Rove truncates the quote to support his desired conclusion. The irony is that the Post, like Rove, opposes a public plan option in health care reform. He doesn’t need to distort their point in order to support his argument, but he does it anyway. It’s just one of many distortions on health care and other issues in the short history of his WSJ column.

  • Newt Gingrich revives the GOPAC playbook

    Newt Gingrich’s one-man assault on Nancy Pelosi’s speakership is destined to fail, but it is worth noting how he is reviving the PR tactics that he helped to popularize.

    When he was rising through the ranks of the House, Gingrich was known for his use of invective to demonize Democrats, which included comparing Speaker Jim Wright to Mussolini and distributing (via his GOPAC organization) a list of “[c]ontrasting words” to apply to “the opponent, their record, proposals and their party” such as “anti- (issue): flag, family, child, jobs,” “betray,” “corrupt,” “endanger,” “lie,” “pathetic,” “radical,” “shame,” “sick,” “steal,” “threaten,” and “traitors.”

    As part of an effort to rebuild his image, Gingrich has largely stayed out of the partisan fray in recent years. He even called for more attention to issues during the presidential campaign.

    But in the last couple of weeks, Gingrich has reverted to form, using code words and insinuation to viciously attack Democrats.

    First, during an appearance on Fox News Sunday on May 10, the former speaker claimed that there was a “weird pattern” of Obama administration officials defending alleged terrorists in pro bono legal work (unlike the Bush administration) and suggested that the Obama administration was proposing “welfare” for terrorists. The point, of course, was to suggest that Democrats are somehow sympathetic to terrorists (via Sam Stein):

    GINGRICH: [W]hen you look at the Obama administration, the number of attorneys they have appointed who were defending alleged terrorists — I mean, there’s this weird pattern where the Bush people wanted to defend Americans and were pretty tough on terrorists. These guys [Obama officials] are prepared to take huge risks with Americans in order to defend terrorists. And you look at who…

    WALLACE: Who is defending terrorists?

    GINGRICH: Oh, I think — well, [Attorney General Eric] Holder’s firm has 17 alleged terrorists that they’re representing on a pro bono basis, for no fee. It’s the largest single thing they were doing for free — was defending Yemenis.

    I think there are five different attorneys in the — in the Justice Department appointed by Obama who had direct — their firms were defending alleged terrorists.

    …WALLACE: Question: If you’re going to try to get other countries to accept these detainees, don’t we have to do our share?

    GINGRICH: This is nuts. I mean, this is just crazy. These are — these are not American nationals. We have no obligation to keep them here. They ought to go home. Now, are their home countries saying, “I won’t take my own citizen?”

    The idea we’re going to put alleged terrorists on welfare and have you pay for them and me pay for them, so they get to be integrated into American society — remember, all these people were brought in on the grounds that they were trained in terrorist camps.

    So we’re now going to take a guy who we don’t have conclusive proof and we’re going to put him in American society paid by the American taxpayer because his home country won’t accept him? Why is his home country not accepting him?

    Then, in a statement right out of the GOPAC playbook, Gingrich deployed this adjective-laden assault on Pelosi after she accused the CIA of lying:

    I think this is the most despicable, dishonest and vicious political effort I’ve seen in my lifetime. She is a trivial politician, viciously using partisanship for the narrowest of purposes, and she dishonors the Congress by her behavior.

    Kevin Drum notes the GOPAC similarity but asks “why use “vicious” twice? It’s like he’s getting political Alzheimer’s or something.” The point, however, is to mechanically create an association between Pelosi and negative traits like “vicious.” Repetition is a key part of manufacturing that association.

  • New policy mood data from Jim Stimson

    UNC’s Jim Stimson just updated his estimate of policy mood — a measure of public demand for more government across a range of issues that I frequently highlight here. Here’s a graph showing his current estimates of yearly mood for 1952-2008 where higher values indicate greater liberalism:
    Stimsonmood08

    The new data indicate that demand for more government in 2008 was at its highest level since 1992 (though not as high as the postwar peaks in the 1958-1968 period).
    With that said, however, it’s important to note that demand for government tends to move in the opposite direction of the party in power — increasing during the Eisenhower years, declining after the Great Society, increasing during the Reagan-Bush 41 period, declining when Bill Clinton took office, and then increasing during the Bush 43 years. Along the same lines, we should expect demand for government to decline substantially over the next few years given that Democrats control both Congress and the White House. Pundits are writing off the GOP much too quickly.

    (Note: See Stimson’s books Public Opinion In America, The Macro Polity [with Erikson and Mackuen], and Tides of Consent for much more on policy mood.)