Month: November 2004
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The razor’s edge
Using the methodology he developed for combining polls to find systematic trends in the data (which I recommended last week), UNC political scientist Jim Stimson now estimates that Bush has 50.04% of the two-party vote and Kerry has 49.96% – unbelievable. Once again, if anyone tells you they know who’s going to win, they’re lying…
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What’s going on with the gender gap?
In the Wall Street Journal today, Fred Barnes claims the following: More important is its appeal to women [Bush’s opposition to gay marriage]. This year the gender gap is all but gone. Women, once decidedly Democratic, are now almost evenly divided between Bush and Kerry. And while men tend to be terrorism-centered voters, women disproportionately