It should become pretty obvious in the next few days that John Roberts is unlikely to be defeated. Game theory says that players should anticipate their rivals’ next move and play their best response to that move. So if the Democrats play like game theorists, they may focus on laying down a series of markers for any future confirmation hearings for justices nominated to replace William Rehnquist, strengthening their hand for the next round in the game. That assumes, of course, that they don’t have to engage in kamikaze attacks against Roberts for the benefit of the liberal interest groups that are already calling for his head.

Update 7/20: Scott Ferguson rightly asks me to explain “laying down a series of markers,” which was more than a little obscure. What I mean is that Democrats might gear their questioning strategy toward a) reasserting their right to try to block objectionable nominations and b) setting a series of precedents and standards that might trip up a future Rehnquist replacement. The next nominee will be expected to answer any questions that Roberts answers now; any stands Roberts takes now will make more conservative stances taken later look extreme; and so forth. I’m not sure it will work, but it seems like their optimal strategy.

Michael Tofias also suggested to me that President Bush might be looking forward to the next judicial battle in the same way. If he doesn’t want to nominate someone who’s not currently on the Court for Chief Justice, he puts Roberts on the Court now and gets a quick confirmation. Then, when Bush is replacing Rehnquist, he can put up someone who’s battle-tested and less controversial than Scalia or Thomas. It’s quite possible.

Update 7/21: Guest-blogging on WashingtonMonthly.com, Lindsay Beyerstein advocates a forward-looking strategy along the lines of what I forecasted above:

Bush will confirm a conservative judge. Barring some shocking revelation about Roberts, I don’t think it would be worthwhile to filibuster him. The next nominee would probably be equally bad. It’s far wiser to stiffen up our own discipline. First, we use the confirmation process to draw attention to critical issues. Second, we send a message to Bush: this far and no further.

A unified Democratic party will send a powerful message. There will probably be at least one more confirmation battle during this administration. If we aren’t strong now, the Republicans will be emboldened to nominate an even more extreme candidate next time.