An overview of the political landscape:

Polls

2006 generic ballot:
Time (6/27-6/29) — 35% Republican, 47% Democrat
USA Today/Gallup (6/23-6/25) — 38% R, 54% D
ABC/Washington Post (6/22-6/25) — 39% R, 52% D
Diageo/Hotline (6/21-6/25) — 36% R, 41% D
Pew (6/14-6/19) — 39% R, 51% D

Congress job rating:
Time (6/27-6/29) — 31% approve, 55% disapprove
Diageo/Hotline (6/21-6/25) — 30% A, 62% D
FOX/Opinion Dynamics (6/13-6/14) — 29% A, 59% D
NBC/Wall Street Journal (6/9-6/12) — 23% A, 64% D
CBS (6/10-6/11) — 26% A, 60% D

President Bush job rating:
Time (6/27-6/29) — 35% approve, 59% disapprove
FOX/Opinion Dynamics (6/27-6/28) — 41% A, 50% D
L.A. Times/Bloomberg (6/24-6/27) — 41% A, 56% D
USA Today/Gallup (6/23-6/25) — 37% A, 60% D
ABC/Washington Post 6/22-6/25) — 38% A, 60% D

Charles Franklin’s latest presidential approval graph:

(Note: Some of these polls differ in who they sample – see links for details.)

Tradesports share values

2006 Congressional elections
-GOP keep control of House – 54.2
-GOP keep control of Senate – 81.6

GOP House shares time trend:

GOP Senate shares time trend:

2008 GOP presidential nomination
-John McCain – 40.0
-George Allen – 17.0
-Rudy Giuliani – 13.3
-Mitt Romney – 11.1
-Condoleezza Rice – 5.0

McCain shares time trend:

2008 Democratic presidential nomination
-Hillary Clinton – 43.2
-Mark Warner – 20.1
-Al Gore – 18.0
-John Edwards – 6.8
-John Kerry – 2.9

Clinton shares time trend:

2008 presidential election winner
-Democratic nominee – 49.0
-GOP nominee – 48.3
-Other candidate – 2.7

(Note: All Tradesports share values represent the percentage likelihood of the event occurring.)