Charles Franklin, the Wisconsin political scientist who blogs at Political Arithmetik, has put together
an excellent graphic showing the long-term trend in Hillary’s favorable/unfavorable ratings:

Franklin comes to the same conclusion I reached a year ago — despite all the hype about how she’s become less polarizing, Hillary’s favorability ratings haven’t really changed since 2000. So why would her supporters expect a presidential run to be successful?

Maybe other people are catching on to this fact — the Tradesports futures market on a Hillary nomination has been trending down (to about 40 percent):