Former Virginia Gov. Mark R. Warner (D) announced this morning that he will not seek the presidency in 2008, saying he wants to spend more time with his family.
He was trading at 15% yesterday on Tradesports:
Clearly, the major beneficiary of this development is John Edwards, who is now the main “electable” Democrat from the South in the race. The market agrees – Edwards futures shares have ticked up the most of the other potential Democratic nominees:
Update 10/12 4:51 PM: On TNR’s The Plank, Michael Crowley argues that Evan Bayh also benefits from Warner’s decision. But let’s take a closer look at how the Democratic futures contract values have changed today.
Warner: -14.8
Edwards: +6.4
Clinton: +2.1
Bayh: +1.3
Obama: +.9
Gore: +.5
Feingold: +.5
Schweitzer: +.4
Vilsack: +.3
Dodd: +.3
Richardson: +.2
The prevailing sentiment, it seems, is still that Edwards benefits. Interestingly, Hillary shares went up by the second greatest amount, suggesting that the removal of a credible “electable” alternative helps her chances. I think that’s right.