Brendan Nyhan

The Thompson surge

Shockingly, the Intrade futures market for 2008 GOP presidential contenders was putting higher odds on Fred Thompson than John McCain a couple of days ago. Here are the current odds, which still have Thompson in a strong third place:

-Giuliani – 30.1%
-McCain – 19.8%
-Thompson – 18.7%
-Romney – 17.4%
-Gingrich – 4.0%

I’ve been skeptical of McCain’s candidacy from the beginning, but it seems pretty early to put that much probability on Thompson, doesn’t it? He doesn’t even have a campaign yet.