The conservative pundit Bruce Bartlett thinks Democrats are almost surely going to win the presidency in 2008:

As each day passes, it becomes increasingly clear that the Democrats will win the White House next year. It’s not quite 1932, but it’s getting close to a sure thing. All the energy is on their side, they are raising more money from more contributors, and there is little if any enthusiasm for any of the Republican candidates—even among Republicans.

Of course, one can never rule out the ability of the Democrats to seize defeat from the jaws of victory. But sometimes the trend in one party’s direction is so strong that even the grossest incompetence can’t keep it from winning. I think 2008 is shaping up as that kind of year for the Democrats.

The markets disagree with Bartlett, however — the futures market currently puts the probability of a Democratic victory in ’08 at 56%:

In other words, Bartlett’s rating on Dem ’08 is BUY. Will he (or others) put some money behind that prediction?

Postscript: Bartlett goes on to advocate that conservatives support Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries because she is the most moderate of the major candidates. Sadly, however, he has to preface that argument with a disclaimer asking conservatives who view the Democratic Party as “the party of treason and socialism” to stop reading:

I’m sure that the first reaction of most conservatives will be to say that any involvement in the Democratic Party is unthinkable. Many view it as the party of treason and socialism. They could no more involve themselves in Democratic politics than a God-fearing Christian would consider working with Satan just because it looked like he was going to win.

For those of you who feel this way, stop reading. There is nothing more in this column for you.