Brendan Nyhan

Misleading poll on Bush knowledge of 9/11?

Rasmussen Reports is touting a poll allegedly showing that many Democrats think President Bush and the CIA knew about the 9/11 attacks in advance:

Democrats in America are evenly divided on the question of whether George W. Bush knew about the 9/11 terrorist attacks in advance. Thirty-five percent (35%) of Democrats believe he did know, 39% say he did not know, and 26% are not sure.

Republicans reject that view and, by a 7-to-1 margin, say the President did not know in advance about the attacks. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 18% believe the President knew and 57% take the opposite view.

Overall, 22% of all voters believe the President knew about the attacks in advance. A slightly larger number, 29%, believe the CIA knew about the attacks in advance.

Here are the tables from the Rasmussen page:

Did the CIA Know About the 9/11 Attacks in Advance?

Yes

29%

No

41%

Not sure

30%

Did Bush Know About the 9/11 Attacks in Advance?

Yes

22%

No

55%

Not sure

22%

John Holbo at Crooked Timber had the same reaction that I did to the wording of these questions — they potentially confuse advance knowledge of the threat of an attack with advance knowledge of the attack itself. Until better questions are tested, I don’t think we can put much faith in these results.