Brendan Nyhan

Cognitive dissonance on Libby commutation

President Bush’s commutation of Scooter Libby’s prison sentence has unleashed a predictable series of simple-minded reactions.

Liberals and Bush opponents are, of course, outraged. Joe Wilson and Atrios (here and here) are claiming that the commutation is “obstruction of justice” — a nonsensical claim on its face (the president’s pardon power is absolute except for impeachment). Meanwhile, Josh Marshall (here and here) and Andrew Sullivan are asserting without evidence that the decision was made or influenced by Vice President Cheney.

On the other side of the aisle, the Wall Street Journal editorial page denounces Bush for failing to pardon Libby. As Noam Scheiber suggests, other conservatives are likely to do the same, though many are keeping the volume low for the moment.

As for me, I’m torn. It appears Libby did perjure himself, which is a serious matter under any circumstances. But he wasn’t the original leaker — Richard Armitage was — and it’s highly unusual to prosecute someone for perjury in a case where the underlying crime wasn’t prosecuted. The most obvious example where this did happen is, of course, Bill Clinton. And as David Brooks notes in a column that captures some of my ambivalence, almost no one has a consistent position on the two cases:

Republicans who’d worked themselves up into a spittle-spewing rage because Bill Clinton lied under oath were appalled that anybody would bother with poor Libby over lying under oath. Democrats who were outraged that Bill Clinton was hounded for something as trivial as perjury were furious that Scooter Libby might not be ruined for a crime as heinous as perjury. It was an orgy of shamelessness. The God of Self-Respect took sabbatical.

With all of that said, it’s hard to justify circumventing the normal commutation process and overruling a judge and jury before Libby has served a day in jail.

At a more general level, Matthew Yglesias may be right that the pardon power is too strong, particularly given the frequency with which associates of the president are prosecuted in the contemporary era.

Finally, from a political point of view, I’d guess that this will push Bush’s abysmal approval ratings to new lows. Glenn Reynolds suggests it will improve his standing by appealing to disaffected conservatives, but a snap Survey USA automated poll found that conservatives are actually split on the issue. One big loser would seemingly be Fred Thompson, whose stalwart support of Libby is now much more salient (his quote: “I am very happy for Scooter Libby”).