Here’s a confidence-inspiring anecdote about the current Secretary of Defense from Evan Thomas’s review of Legacy of Ashes: The History of the CIA:

Weiner, a reporter for The Times who has covered intelligence for many years, has a good eye for embarrassing detail. High-ranking officials, it appears, were often the last to know. When Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990, Robert M. Gates, who is now the secretary of defense but at the time was the first President Bush’s top intelligence adviser, was at a family picnic. A friend of his wife’s joined the picnic and asked him, “What are you doing here?” Gates asked, “What are you talking about?” “The invasion,” she said. “What invasion?” he asked.

In the age of Bush 43, people sometimes get wistful for the supposed competence of his father’s administration. Maybe they’re getting a little carried away…

Update 7/23 2:12 PM: Bruce Bartlett shares a related anecdote in comments:

I had a similar Bush 41 experience. A few days before the election in 1992 I ran into Charlie Black at the local supermarket. At the time, Charlie was one of Bush’s top campaign aides. I asked him what he was doing food shopping with his wife when Bush was fighting for his political life? He just shrugged his shoulders while his wife giggled. I knew then, with absolute certainty, that Bush would lose the election.