As I mentioned a few days ago, I’m highly suspicious of most expert predictions, which studies have shown to be terrible. So it’s amusing to see William Kristol Josh Marshall):

Last night, for the first time this election cycle, I watched a Democratic presidential debate. It was appalling. But it was also, in a way, encouraging. Before last night, I thought it was 50-50 that the Republican nominee would win in November 2008.

Now I think it’s 2 to 1. And if the Democrat is anyone but Hillary, it’s 4 to 1.

I’ll take those odds! In fact, lots of people would — right now, the Intrade prediction market puts the likelihood of a Republican winning the presidency at 39 percent. Kristol, by contrast, is saying it should be 67 percent. In addition, Kristol’s statement that “if the Democrat is anyone but Hillary, it’s 4 to 1” would put the odds of an Obama or Edwards general election victory if they get the nomination at 20 percent. But the markets are currently putting an implicit probability on an Obama or Edwards general election win if nominated at 47 and 42 percent, respectively. If only Kristol had to put his money where his mouth is…