Month: September 2007
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Overstated expert precision
One of the themes of The Black Swan, an excellent book I’m reading now, is that experts are terrible at prediction and that all of us, but especially experts, overestimate the precision of our estimates. A seemingly great example is what Stephen Biddle at the Council on Foreign Relations told George Packer about Iraq: The
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The Democratic blame game
Matthew Yglesias notes the bizarre conclusion that the MoveOn “General Betray Us” ad is the reason Democrats failed to force a troop withdrawal: People find it comforting, I guess, to try to convince themselves that MoveOn is the reason our troops will be engaged in at least 18 more months of futile combat in Iraq,
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Rep. King: “[T]oo many mosques” in US
It’s great to see members of Congress
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AP: “Is Edwards Real or a Phony?”
Believe it or not: the AP has released a piece by Ron Fournier titled “Analysis: Is Edwards Real or a Phony?” Talk about parroting Republican talking points! Can we expect an equivalent approach to covering the GOP candidates? (“Giuliani: Sane or Crazy?”) Also, there’s an obvious epistemological problem here — Fournier can’t resolve whether Edwards
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More misleading tax cut claims
Time for some intellectual garbage pickup, as Brad DeLong calls it. Mark Thoma flags President Bush’s latest claim that tax cuts increase revenue, which he made during an interview with Fox News: I would also argue that cutting taxes made a significant difference, not only in dealing with a recession and an attack on our
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The Democrats need less civility
A useful Reuters story points out that civility in campaigns may actually be harmful — conflict sharpens choices for voters and helps hold those in power responsible for their actions. Along those lines, it’s good to see that the lame debate among the Democratic candidates may finally be heating up. Voters deserve a choice on
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McCain joins Giuliani in attack on dissent
Last week, Rudy Giuliani attacked Hillary Clinton and MoveOn.org for their criticism of General Petraeus and suggested that such attacks “should not be allowed”: This is being done purely for political campaign strategy. It’s a calculated political campaign strategy. You should not be allowed to malign someone’s reputation unfairly just because you think it’s good
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Brokered conventions are unlikely
TNR’s John B. Judis speculates that “when the Republicans meet in Minneapolis-St. Paul in September 2008 to choose their nominee, they might be looking at a brokered convention.” The reason he thinks this election might be different is the front-loaded primary schedule. But as he acknowledges, “dire prognostications of brokered conventions are made nearly every
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The end of the Nyhan curse?
When I was at Swarthmore College as an undergrad, our football team didn’t win a single game until my senior year — our 28-game losing streak was the longest in the country, and we only broke it by flying in Oberlin, which had the second longest losing streak. (The College canceled the program the next
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Chemerinsky gets UC-Irvine job back
In a reversal of his previous reversal, UC-Irvine chancellor Michael V. Drake has hired Duke Law’s Erwin Chemerinsky as the dean of its new law school for the second time: UC Irvine Chancellor Michael V. Drake and Erwin Chemerinsky have reached an agreement that will return the liberal legal scholar to the dean’s post at