Brendan Nyhan

Jonathan Weisman on the “Fair Tax”

Like many journalists, the Washington Post’s Jonathan Weisman may sometimes pull his punches when reporting on partisan disputes over economic policy, but when both sides agree something is a bad idea, watch out. Check out his lede for a story on Mike Huckabee’s “Fair Tax”:

To former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, supporting a national retail sales tax is more than a policy proposal. It has provided much-needed muscle for his campaign, filling rallies and events with fervent supporters hoping to replace the entire income and payroll tax system.

There’s one problem: A national sales tax won’t work, at least not according to tax experts and economists of all political stripes. Even President Bush’s Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform dedicated a chapter of its 2005 final report to dismissing such proposals.

“After careful evaluation, the Panel decided to reject a complete replacement of the federal income tax system with a retail sales tax,” the panel said. It concluded that such a move would shift the tax burden from the rich to the poor or create the largest entitlement program in history to mitigate that new burden.

…[T]he biggest criticism is that the tax cannot be administered. Many economists say a black market would develop overnight, especially in the service sector…

At the same time, federal spending would shoot up because the government would have to pay sales taxes on purchases. To compensate, the sales tax rate would have to rise to more than 40 percent for the government to take in as much as it does now, said William G. Gale, a tax economist at the Brookings Institution. State and local governments, facing a new burden on purchases, would have to increase taxes to maintain current levels, as well.

On the other hand, Huckabee’s website claims that the Fair Tax “will be like waving a magic wand releasing us from pain and unfairness”!