Month: January 2008
-
All polarization is not equal
Josh Marshall’s post yesterday illustrates why Ezra Klein is wrong (here and here) to suggest that all prominent political figures end up becoming equally polarizing — John McCain isn’t (yet, at least): Yesterday, Kos posted some Rasmussen numbers of favorable and unfavorable numbers of major presidential contenders. Kos’s point was that whichever candidate you choose
-
Myths about primaries
John Sides is doing yeoman’s work at The Monkey Cage debunking myths about the Iowa caucus and the primary process. Here are two of the most interesting posts: 1. New Hampshire doesn’t have a better track record than Iowa of predicting the eventual nominee. 2. Democratic and Republican primary voters are not substantially different than
-
Cohen’s anti-Obama narrative
In a recent column, Richard Cohen correctly criticizes Barack Obama for getting his facts wrong (the number of black people in college actually exceeds the number of people in jail), but then links it to questions about the accuracy of Obama’s first book and suggests that the Democratic presidential candidate may have a truth-telling problem.
-
Giving thanks for Rudy’s drubbing
My #1 concern in the presidential election is the defeat of Rudy Giuliani, so I have to join Steve Benen and Josh Marshall in giving thanks for his terrible showing yesterday. Some day the phrase “February 5th strategy” will be a joke among insiders…
-
Michael Barone’s “16 year itch”
Michael Barone: The metrically minded will see a common thread. Every 16 years–in 1976, 1992 and now in 2008–American voters have seemed less interested in experience and credentials and more interested in a new face unconnected to the current political establishment. What can explain this 16-year itch? Chance. As Atrios would say, this has been
-
The coming Huckabee beatdown
A few weeks ago, I pointed to the signs of an anti-Huckabee backlash. While liberals’ soft spot for Huckabee is gone at this point, the Huck haters on the right have obviously lost round 1 (i.e., Iowa). However, there’s almost no precedent for someone winning the nomination with as little elite support as Huckabee (see,
-
Is Mitt Romney the next Walter Mondale?
I think this David Brooks analogy is apt: With his data-set mentality, Romney has chosen to model himself on a version of Republicanism that is receding into memory. As Walter Mondale was the last gasp of the fading New Deal coalition, Romney has turned himself into the last gasp of the Reagan coalition. That coalition