A few weeks ago, I pointed to the signs of an anti-Huckabee backlash. While liberals’ soft spot for Huckabee is gone at this point, the Huck haters on the right have obviously lost round 1 (i.e., Iowa). However, there’s almost no precedent for someone winning the nomination with as little elite support as Huckabee (see, in particular, the work of Cohen, Karol, Noel, and Zaller [here and here] who find that elite activist support is the best predictor of primary outcomes). That means the establishment will be coming to destroy Huckabee in the next few weeks. John McCain’s 2000 defeat in South Carolina may look like a tea party…

PS: Anticipation of this outcome may be the reason Huckabee’s probability of winning the GOP nomination on the Intrade futures market is still only 16.8%.