Brendan Nyhan

The Zogby primary

After a long history of questionable practices (PDF), including distorting his own poll and hyping bogus Internet polling, pollster John Zogby missed California by about 15 points. Can we stop taking him seriously as a legitimate pollster now?

Update 2/7 9:29 AM: Via Sullivan, Zogby downplays the error:

About California: Some of you may have noticed our pre-election polling differed from the actual results. It appears that we underestimated Hispanic turnout and overestimated the importance of younger Hispanic voters. We also overestimated turnout among African-American voters. Those of you who have been following our work know that we have gotten 13 out of 17 races right this year, and so many others over the years. This does happen.

I love the euphemism that their “pre-election polling differed from the actual results.” Well, of course it did — almost everyone’s polls fail to get the exact numbers. But most pollsters don’t miss by double digits!