Month: May 2008
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2008 vs. previous races by education
A reader shared the link to an excellent table that was posted on the website FiveThirtyEight.com back in April: Hillary performs fully 11 points better against McCain than Obama does among voters with a high school education or less. But Obama performs 6 points better than Hillary among adults with some college, 10 points better
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Profiled in Duke Magazine
For those who are interested (hi Mom!), there is a brief profile of me in the current issue of Duke Magazine. It includes some of my thoughts on the relationship between Spinsanity and my academic research.
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ABC: 82% say wrong track
The latest ABC News poll/Washington Post poll shows how negatively the public has come to view the direction of the country under President Bush (PDF): 82% of the public thinks the country is on the wrong track, which is just one percentage point lower than the 1973 record. (John McCain, once again, is in big
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The randomization reform agenda
Thought of the day: Couldn’t reform-minded liberals and pork-busting conservatives agree that we should have randomized evaluations of almost everything the government does in social welfare, health care, etc.? When will Washington join the experimental revolution and find out which programs actually work? Update 5/12 10:19 PM: In comments, Dave White points to a CRS
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Obama smear watch
Media Matters notes that the Washington Times quoted a man in Indiana saying “I can’t stand [Barack Obama]… He’s a Muslim. He’s not even pro-American as far as I’m concerned” without pointing out that Obama is a Christian. Similar reports appeared in the LA Times, the websites of the Washington Post and the Baltimore Sun,
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Hillary’s latest extrapolation fallacy
Hillary Clinton has sent a memo to House Democrats touting her victories in swing districts. The problem is that the memo, like so much of Hillary’s electability arguments, depends on the fallacy that primaries are an accurate guide to general election outcomes. You just can’t assume that to be true. What we need instead is
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Debates with my colleagues
Discussions that have I’ve been having with my colleagues at PIPC this week: (1) What happens to Joe Lieberman if the Democrats take the White House and expand their Senate majority to 56 or 57 seats? Despite his support for McCain, I think Democrats will want his vote on non-war-related issues, so they’ll hold their
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Ensign: Liberals want to weaken defense
In a fundraising email to supporters yesterday, NRSC chairman John Ensign suggested that one of the top legislative priorities of “Big Labor, MoveOn.org and extremist environmental groups” is “weakening our national defense”: Dear Republican Supporter, Big Labor, MoveOn.org and extremist environmental groups have promised to spend millions to elect angry liberals like Al Franken to
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The Post fact-checks Bill Clinton’s face!
Self-parody alert — Michael Dobbs, the Washington Post’s “Fact Checker,” is fact-checking Bill Clinton’s facial expressions: “Tonight we’ve come from behind, we’ve broken the tie, and thanks to you it’s full speed on to the White House.” –Hillary Clinton, May 6, 2008. Brave, defiant words from Hillary Clinton. But observe the facial expressions. For many
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Chris Matthews and Harold Ford enlighten us
In the annals of great Chris Matthews moments, this interview with former Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. is one of my favorites — it’s swami time! MATTHEWS: Do you think Hillary Rodham Clinton has the soul of a vice president? Do you think she would really feel right about that job? She was first lady,