Brendan Nyhan

Month: October 2008

  • Orson Swindle: Best robocaller ever

    Can it really be true that the person who taped the latest smear robocall against Barack Obama is named Orson Swindle? Was Johnny Deceptive booked?

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  • McCain claims Palin “not wealthy”

    John McCain, who previously joked that he defined being rich as making over $5 million, said yesterday that his running mate Governor Sarah Palin and her family “are not wealthy.” Really? Americans’ median household net worth in 2002 was approximately $59,000 (PDF). The Palin family’s net worth exceeds $1 million according to financial disclosure forms.

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  • Why George W. Bush is like Jimmy Carter

    One thing that didn’t get much attention last week — President Bush’s approval rating in the New York Times poll was 22 percent! He’s helped set the stage for a top-to-bottom repudiation of Republicans in the House, Senate, and presidential races a week from Tuesday. Perceptions of a Democratic mandate are sure to follow. What’s

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  • Jim Stimson on the stability of Obama’s lead

    Drudge and other outlets are selectively hyping the handful of polls showing a relatively close race. That’s not surprising given their incentives. The problem is that if you draw enough random samples and you throw in house effects and questionable likely voter screens, a poll somewhere every day or two will show McCain within a

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  • McCain in same position as Gore?

    Some unconvincing spin from Steve Schmidt: “The McCain campaign is roughly in the position where Vice President Gore was running against President Bush one week before the election of 2000,” said Steve Schmidt, Mr. McCain’s chief strategist. “We have ground to make up, but we believe we can make it up.” Actually, with a week

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  • The coming mandate debate

    Paul Krugman and Paul Waldman push back against a Newsweek cover story that preemptively proclaims America a “center-right” country. These are the precursors to the high-stakes debate that will follow Obama’s likely victory on November 4. Here’s a handy clip ‘n’ save guide to what you should expect: (1) Many people will proclaim falsely that

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  • More McCain mind-reading

    Over the last few months, Josh Marshall’s Talking Points Memo blog has frequently been captured by a pernicious form of psychobabble about John McCain’s inner thoughts. But even by his standards, the post below — which consists entirely of a reader’s speculations about John McCain’s mental state — might represent a new low of McCain

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  • Obama drug use raised

    Back in May of last year, I noted an aide to John McCain attacking Barack Obama’s past drug use (“Obama wouldn’t know the difference between an RPG and a bong”) and suggested that we might see a similar tactic this fall: Given Obama’s racial background, the danger is that these attacks will be used to

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  • Quotes on Obama/Muslim myth from panel

    As noted earlier, I was a panelist in a forum at Duke on Muslim Americans and the 2008 election. Here are excerpts from some coverage in the local press: Duke Today — Muslims and the 2008 Election: Nyhan, who studies the political consequences of correcting misperceptions, said it’s difficult for Sen. Barack Obama to counter

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  • Why all news reports on polls are suspect

    Princeton’s Sam Wang has a nice summary of the perverse incentives that distort media coverage of the horse race: It is not in the interest of individual pollsters or media organizations for you to have the most accurate possible picture of the horserace. Here is why. Uncertainties such as the margin of error can be

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