The Post asked John Podesta, Newt Gingrich, Mary Beth Cahill, Peter J. Wallison and Stuart E. Eizenstat what could make tonight a game-changer.
The real answer: Almost nothing. Obama is up by eight points in the Pollster.com estimate — there’s no evidence of a debate ever causing a shift of that magnitude.
PS Along the lines, check out the way the New York Times describes Reagan’s debate performance in 1980:
Mr. Reagan struggled until he met President Jimmy Carter in their only debate at the end of the campaign and voters decided they were comfortable enough with Mr. Reagan to take a chance on a relative newcomer to politics.
Compare that with Jim Stimson’s smoothed trajectory of the polls in that race (and two other competitive races):
As Stimson concludes, Reagan’s performance might have helped to nudge him over the top at the end of the race, but there’s little evidence that “voters decided” en masse to support him as a result of the debate.