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ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos Reports: Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., and former President Bill Clinton are making very direct arguments to Democratic superdelegates, starkly insisting Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., cannot win a general election against presumptive Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.

Sources with direct knowledge of the conversation between Sen. Clinton and Gov. Bill Richardson, D-N.M., prior to the Governor’s endorsement of Obama say she told him flatly, “He cannot win, Bill. He cannot win.”

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The lesson here is that even very smart politicians like Bill and Hillary Clinton have a hard time extrapolating beyond their own circumstances. The Clintons’ formative political experiences took place in contexts (Arkansas and the 1992 election) where a liberal black candidate was not likely to win. So it probably seemed obvious to the Clintons that Obama could not win a general election against a white war hero and supposed “maverick.” But America has changed and the public mood seems more hostile to conservatism than at any point since the aftermath of Watergate. In addition, politicians frequently don’t recognize how little candidates seem to matter. People tend to attribute Clintons’ victories to political skill, but the main reason he won is that the political fundamentals favored him in 1992 and 1996. Similarly, while Obama is a skilled politician, I tend to believe that almost any Democrat would be winning in this context.