Month: November 2008
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WSJ’s geography lesson for conservatives
Things have deteriorated pretty far in America when the Wall Street Journal editorial page has to remind fellow conservatives that “New Jersey is part of America too”: Our advice would be that [Alaska govenror Sarah Palin] also broaden her appeal beyond the politics of cultural division. One unfortunate campaign decision was to turn Mrs. Palin’s
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Has McCain poisoned the well for Obama?
One of the most important questions confronting Barack Obama is how he will be treated by Republicans in Congress and the electorate after the afterglow of his victory fades. During the campaign, John McCain riled up the base to think that Obama is a terrorist sympathizer who “doesn’t put country first.” McCain tried to back
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Ramesh Ponnuru on McCain’s tax cut
In a New York Times op-ed today, Ramesh Ponnuru claims that “Mr. McCain’s plans would have cut taxes more than Mr. Obama’s for a lot of middle-class families, but Republicans rarely bothered to point that out.” However, the Tax Policy Center found that Obama would have cut taxes more than McCain for the second, third,
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Retrospective wisdom on the campaign
Time for another dispatch on the bizarre epistemology of campaign journalism. As I noted yesterday, the conventions of campaign journalism require journalists to obsess over the twists and turns of the presidential horse race and to ignore the fact that its outcome is highly predictable. But everything changes after Election Day. For instance, CNN.com’s retrospective
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Two lessons of 2008
The conventional wisdom tends to enshrine certain “lessons” from each election cycle. Here are two that I hope get remembered: 1. Pick a qualified running mate. It’s difficult to tell if the choice of Sarah Palin actually hurt John McCain — despite her bad poll numbers, he did about as well as political science models
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The fundamentals work: Obama 53%
For months I’ve been emphasizing the role of the political fundamentals in determining presidential election outcomes. Last night that approach was again vindicated. The median forecast from leading election models was that Barack Obama would receive 52% of the two-party vote. According to the current numbers on CNN’s website, he’s at 53.1%. And despite the
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George W. Bush’s political legacy
Like Bill Clinton and Newt Gingrich, Bush overestimated his ability to change public opinion to support his policy goals. But 9/11 made it possible for him to overreach much further than Clinton or Gingrich ever did. As a result, the scope of the backlash is even more significant. He may truly be the Jimmy Carter
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2006 + 2008 = blowout
James Carville just made a really important point on CNN that was also emphasized to me by one of my advisers — while Democratic gains in the House and Senate tonight are significant, the combination of 2006 and 2008 adds up to a shift of historic proportions: Republicans are on target to lose somewhere between
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Hillary Clinton: Not prescient
Famous last words from the primary: Hillary Rodham Clinton vowed Wednesday to continue her quest for the Democratic nomination, arguing she would be the stronger nominee because she appeals to a wider coalition of voters — including whites who have not supported Barack Obama in recent contests. “I have a much broader base to build
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The end to a strange process
In the final minutes before election results come in, it’s worth reiterating the bizarre nature of the general election campaign and the way it is covered in the press. The final outcome is highly predictable from the political fundamentals and yet the media invests vast effort in making up stories about campaign events and their