For months I’ve been emphasizing the role of the political fundamentals in determining presidential election outcomes. Last night that approach was again vindicated. The median forecast from leading election models was that Barack Obama would receive 52% of the two-party vote. According to the current numbers on CNN’s website, he’s at 53.1%. And despite the (overhyped) attention to state polls at sites like Five Thirty Eight, the swing from 2004 was nearly uniform across states (with a few exceptions that were apparently driven by home-state advantages and race).

Update 11/6 9:49 AM: See also John Sides at The Monkey Cage.