Brendan Nyhan

The coming blame Obama backlash

As predicted, Clive Crook is blaming Obama for his political problems (rather than his staff as in the meme from a few weeks ago) without mentioning the fact that any president would struggle in the current economic and political context. Expect more of this if health care doesn’t pass and/or as the Democrats’ midterm polling numbers become worse.

PS: Crook also trots out a silly up-is-down comparison that is quickly becoming a cliché among centrist and center-right pundits:

The best hope for the Obama presidency may be the drubbing for Democrats in November that looks increasingly likely. Just as for Bill Clinton in 1994, this would make the president’s mind up for him. With weakened allies in Congress, he would have to be a centrist president or an outright failure.

Bill Clinton’s much-vaunted move to the center may have helped boost his margin in 1996, but improvements in the state of the economy surely played a more important role in the outcome. The “best hope for the Obama presidency” isn’t a “drubbing for Democrats in November”; it’s a period of sustained economic growth that will boost Obama’s approval numbers and increase the likelihood that he’ll be re-elected in 2012.

Update 3/2 11:19 AM: This Washington Post profile of Rahm Emanuel reverses the previous blame-the-staff meme, instead suggesting that “Emanuel… could have helped the administration avoid its current bind if the president had heeded his advice.”