Month: June 2010
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Research 2000 update
Given the findings about possible non-random discrepancies in Research 2000 polls that were published yesterday on Daily Kos and similar results from Nate Silver, I’ve added the following disclosure to previous posts that cite Research 2000 polls: [Update (6/30/10): Serious questions have been raised about the validity of Research 2000’s polls. The results discussed below
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The mysticism of Peggy Noonan
Jonathan Chait had a great post a couple of weeks ago that’s worth revisiting because of what it tells us about how pundits reason about politics. As Chait noted, political scientists have established that presidential election outcomes are largely a function of the state of the economy, particularly in an election year (the same principle
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Twitter roundup
From my Twitter feed: -A new 60 Minutes/Vanity Fair poll finds 24% 13% of Americans still believe Obama wasn’t born in US (update: and 11% aren’t sure) –Insanely bad job loss chart on Fox News — somewhere Edward Tufte is crying… –A smart post on the economic incentives for “objectivity” that the Weigel debate has
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Charles M. Blow puts Obama on the couch
Charles M. Blow, the “visual Op-Ed columnist” for the New York Times, has discovered a magical ability to plumb the inner workings of President Obama’s psyche: On the other side stands Obama — solid and sober, rooted in the belief that his way is the right way and in no need of alteration. He’s the
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The conservative anti-McCaughey underground
At the end of last week, the disclosure of off-the-record emails sent by Washington Post blogger Dave Weigel created a controversy that led to his resignation from the newspaper. One such email quoted by the Daily Caller stated the following: “Tangentially related: Betsy McCaughey showed up at Grover Norquist’s conservative meeting today, massive spiral-bound health
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Twitter roundup
From my Twitter feed: –Chris Mooney on why scientists struggle to correct public misperceptions, and how they can do better –A politician I can get behind: “Gnarr … ruled out any party whose members had not seen all five seasons of ‘The Wire.’” –The best initial post on Weigelgate — read Conor Friedsdorf on the
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The Obama oil spill/approval narrative spreads
The narrative that President Obama’s approval ratings are being heavily damaged by the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is quickly overwhelming the critical faculties of the media. Last week, I laid down a marker on this point, noting the potential appeal of the spill as a journalistic narrative to dramatize Obama’s political difficulties.
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No evidence for Mellman’s “magic” 50% approval
Last week, I criticized Matt Bai’s claim that it was an “ominous sign” for Democrats that President Obama’s approval rating is under 50%. Writing in The Hill, top Democratic pollster Mark Mellman goes even further, calling 50% approval a “magic number” for midterm elections: [P]erhaps there are some magic numbers after all. Take the effect
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Questioning the popularity of fact-checking
In a post yesterday, NYU journalism prof/blogger Jay Rosen argued for more fact-checking in political journalism, citing a Greg Sargent post reporting that the AP’s fact-checks are the most popular articles that the wire service publishes: Fact checking is good journalism. Journalists should take a lesson from the success of the fact-checking site, Politfact.com. I
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The relative normalcy of Obama politics
Reading the opening of David Remnick’s book The Bridge last night, I was struck by how small a role race has played in Barack Obama’s presidential campaign and time in office relative to what we might have expected a few years ago. His popular vote total in 2008 was very close to what the leading