Month: June 2010
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Why I’m skeptical of Nate Silver’s pollster ratings
Mark Blumenthal quoted me in a blog post at Pollster.com (where I frequently cross-post) commenting on Nate Silver’s pollster ratings — here’s what I wrote: It’s not necessarily true that the dummy variable for each firm (i.e. the “raw score”) actually “reflects the pollster’s skill” as Silver states. These estimates instead capture the expected difference
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Twitter roundup
From my Twitter feed: -A high point in the history of fact-checking: Politifact investigates Snooki’s claims about the health care reform tanning tax (for the record: true) –TNR’s Jon Chait on the “postmodern scandal” of BP’s CEO watching a yacht race — an entirely image-driven faux controversy -I’m not sure why Eliot Spitzer is seen
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Ross Douthat on liberal Green Lantern-ism
New York Times columnist Ross Douthat correctly diagnoses the surge of Green Lantern-ism among liberals noted here a few days ago: At work in this liberal panic are two intellectual vices, and one legitimate fear. The first vice is the worship of presidential power: the belief that any problem, any crisis, can be swiftly solved
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The Green Lantern theory of the presidency is back!
As liberal discontent grows toward President Obama and Congressional Democrats, TNR’s Jon Chait has been documenting a resurgence of what I call the Green Lantern theory of the presidency. In this fantasy world, all legislative obstacles can be overcome through the sheer exertion of presidential will. As such, when Obama fails to overcome the sixty
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Twitter roundup
From my Twitter feed: -TNR’s Jon Chait slams Peggy Noonan’s retreat to the “familiar embrace of mysticism” as an explanation for presidential popularity -Emory’s Alan Abramowitz shows that Democrats have fewer marginal seats to defend than in 1994 –NYT’s Ross Douthat on how members of the cult of the presidency demand the appearance of action
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More on presidential approval in midterm elections
Two important points of followup on Tuesday’s post about how Matt Bai overhyped President Obama’s approval rating as “ominous” for Democrats: 1. First, as Emory’s Alan Abramowitz correctly pointed out in an email to me, “Seat exposure and the midterm dummy variable predict substantial Democratic losses regardless of what happens to either the generic ballot
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Obama approval: No oil spill effect
In the wake of President Obama’s speech to the nation about BP and the Gulf last night, it’s worth noting that his approval ratings have not been affected by the spill so far. The speech is unlikely to have a significant effect either. I’m laying down a marker on these two points because of the
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Matt Bai: Wrong on presidential approval
In the New York Times Magazine, Matt Bai suggests it is “an ominous sign, historically speaking, for a majority party” when “the president’s own approval ratings fell below 50 percent”: [President Obama] continued to go out and shake his head disbelievingly at “the culture of Washington,” which to the Democrats in the House sounded as
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Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s misleading jobs claim
One of the ironies of the Obama presidency is seeing Democrats use the same tactics they once decried from the Bush administration (attacking dissent, etc.). The latest example comes from Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who said the following on Fox Business: WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: On the pace that we’re on, with job creation in the last
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Twitter roundup
From my Twitter feed: -More racial codewords on Obama’s “ass to kick” comment — Washington Times columnist calls it “street-gangster language” -Bill Maher even more racially offensive on Obama and BP -A cool network graph showing issue networks of the American left (from friends/colleagues Michael Heaney and Fabio Rojas) –Trailer for new gerrymandering doc seems