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Opposition to interracial dating strongly associated with Democratic vote preference, esp. when Obama is mentioned http://j.mp/9TjD2W
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| YouGov – Old Fashioned Prejudice and Midterm Vote Preference YouGov is a research and consulting organization, pioneering the use of the Internet to collect high quality in-depth data for market research, organizational research and stakeholder consultation. |
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RT @pwire By 2:1 margin, voters think taxes have risen, economy shrunk, & billions lost on bailouts. None is true. http://pwire.at/aB9r5v
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 Voters Don’t Have Accurate View of EconomyTaegan Goddard’s Political Wire — News, polls and buzz |
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Jon Chait on why we should use structural factors as a baseline in assessing Democrats’ midterm performance http://j.mp/bZLFxD
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| How To Tell If Obama Blew The Election, Or If It Was Blown At All | The New Republic The New Republic covers politics, culture, and the arts with a focus on the White House, foreign policy, Congress, Capitol Hill, the 2010 midterm elections, literature, and more. |
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Contrary to silly counter-intuitive hype, divided gov. not good for Obama: http://bit.ly/9f8Jri See also my March post: http://bit.ly/bKkOBV
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| The Monkey Cage: Why Divided Government Is Bad for Obama | ||
| The coming blame Obama backlash – Brendan Nyhan As predicted, Clive Crook is blaming Obama for his political problems (rather than his staff as in the meme from a few weeks ago) without mentioning the fact that any president would struggle in… |
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No. || CS Monitor: "Will the Rally to Restore Sanity actually restore sanity?" http://j.mp/bdghGE
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| Will the Rally to Restore Sanity actually restore sanity? – CSMonitor.com We’re pretty sure that on Sunday, Democratic and Republican candidates will still be running attack ads. But it’s possible the Rally to Restore Sanity could have some effect on the national conv… |
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No fundamentals alert: Game Change authors attribute Obama’s difficulties to lack of intensity, "theory of the case" http://bit.ly/ak8rGk
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 ‘Game Change’ Authors: Can Obama Win a Second Term? – TIMETo win a second term, Barack Obama will need a new strategy. A new paperback afterword from John Heilemann and Mark Halperin, the authors of ‘Game Change,’ discusses the President’s re-election … |
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John Judis on myths about the Tea Party — don’t agree with everything but worth reading http://bit.ly/cs89dF
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| Four Myths About The Tea Parties | The New Republic The New Republic covers politics, culture, and the arts with a focus on the White House, foreign policy, Congress, Capitol Hill, the 2010 midterm elections, literature, and more. |
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Political scientist @bshor identifies the most likely "fightin’ moderates of the freshman Republican class" http://j.mp/d3XfqE
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| Say Hello to the Future Fightin’ Republican Liberals and Moderates of the House Class of 2010 « Boris Shor, PhD | ||
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"Democrats are using personal attacks at much higher rates than Republicans" http://bit.ly/bbPMRX (via ABC: http://j.mp/9LqA6f )
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http://bit.ly/bbPMRX |
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 Vote 2010 Elections: Democratic Closing Argument: Personal Attacks – ABC NewsIt’s not just the Aqua Buddha and David Vitter’s prostitute, Democratic candidates across the country are closing out the campaign with personal attacks on Republican candidates, sometimes diggi… |
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As @ezraklein points out, party messaging tactics largely offset in the highly competitive world of the national parties http://j.mp/cCAHWn
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| Ezra Klein – Can you see the messaging effect? Over the past month or two, Democrats tried a variety of new messaging strategies to shake up the election. President Obama became, at least for a time, more partisan and confrontational in an e… |
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Jason Roberts (@profjroberts) on the shift to the office bloc ballot and how it could help incumbents http://bit.ly/aRlg4c
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| The Monkey Cage: How the Ballot May Save the Democratic Majority | ||
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If you missed it, Factcheck.org has compiled its list of "Whoppers of Campaign 2010" http://j.mp/9Y8fOt
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| Whoppers of Campaign 2010 | FactCheck.org Midterm elections are an embarrassment of riches for fact-checkers — this year more than others. With Democrats fighting desperately to keep control of the House and Senate, and a torrent of mo… |
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Ross Douthat explains the strategic voting logic that would sabotage most of the elaborate Bloomberg 3P scenarios http://j.mp/9mH81D
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| Could Bloomberg Make Palin President? – NYTimes.com Why John Heilemann’s wild 2012 scenario doesn’t hold water. |
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I didn’t see the CA gov. event Matt Lauer hosted, but @JoshuaGreen is right about anti-negative ad posturing http://bit.ly/catCiK
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 Matt Lauer, Pious Snob – Joshua Green – Politics – The AtlanticThe quasi-journalist’s request that Meg Whitman and Jerry Brown stop airing negative ads was motivated by nothing other than Olympian self-regard |
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More on the Fox-ification of MSNBC — Ed Schultz busts out the Nazi analogy while hyping head-stomping video http://j.mp/bwQFsO
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| Print view: My remark was ”thoughtless,” the NPR chief said. But that was Murray’s point |
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Charlie Crist plays the strategic voting card in Florida — probably too late to have much of an effect http://j.mp/b9kt1v
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| Weigel : Charlie Crist: “The Polls Say I’m the Only One Who Can Stop” Palin, Tea Party, Rubio A pretty naked appeal from the fading independent candidate in Florida’s U.S. Senate race. Note the naming and shaming of Sarah Palin and the Tea Party. When I was in Florida , I met a number of… |
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.@mattyglesias talks sense to Democrats: "all the marketing and PR in the world won’t succeed in moving public opinion" http://j.mp/ape9Hy
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| The Wrong Political Game | The American Prospect | ||
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RT @rcantor Great moments in polling: 51% would share their home w/ a ghost for free rent http://usat.ly/cPEvIT
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| USA TODAY Snapshots – USATODAY.com USA TODAY Snapshots are easy-to-read statistical graphics that present information on various issues and trends in a visually appealing way. Readers are invited to answer a Quick Question relate… |
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Forecasting House elections with campaign finance data http://bit.ly/a8VLrZ
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| Forecasting House Elections with FEC Records « Ideological Cartography | ||
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"Maybe Obama can triangulate like Clinton!" is a silly theory. Unemployment was 5.6% in Jan 1995; macroeconomic policy mattered less.
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Truth: "Every president has a communications problem." http://j.mp/aMNZXM No such thing as "forfeit[ing] control of the narrative."
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| Robert Draper on Robert Gibbs, White House press secretary: Politics: GQ | ||
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Crazy stupid polling story RT @smotus 75% … provided an answer to an open-ended question? There’s your lede! http://tinyurl.com/29sw3z9
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| 1 in 4 Americans can’t think of recent positive contribution by Christians – The Denver Post One in four Americans said they couldn |
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Welcome to the Unity 2008 of the next election cycle: Americans Elect 2012 http://j.mp/9WAHI1
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| Americans Elect 2012 | ||
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Fanciful NY Mag piece w/elaborate scenarios in which Bloomberg run gets Palin elected http://j.mp/9duN8Q Highly unlikely 3P hype as usual
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| How Sarah Palin Could End Up As President in 2012 — New York Magazine Why do you think Barack Obama is being so nice to Michael Bloomberg? |
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It’s wrong to say Obama "forfeited control of the narrative" — what peacetime pres. has had "control" in a bad economy? http://j.mp/b7Lhuk
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| How Obama Lost the Narrative | Mother Jones So he’s not Superman after all—but how has he managed to lose to the legion of doom? |
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.@mattyglesias is right — Fed policy has been an Iraq/Katrina-level screwup by Obama, but no one talks about it http://j.mp/bSTSdH
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| Yglesias » Does Ben Bernanke Secretly Want Fiscal Expansion? | ||
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Contrary to hype of Reagan’s message (http://j.mp/a5QaEB), more want Obama to run for re-election now than Reagan in ’82 http://j.mp/b0lAcC
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| Judis vs. Judis on presidents and the economy – Brendan Nyhan Back in January, I predicted the birth of a thousand “Why Obama is failing” narratives: It’s time to lay down a marker on punditry about the Obama White House. During the next eleven months, it … |
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| Obama In Better Shape Than Reagan – Congressional Connection Poll |
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In 1985, 1:125 kids had parent in prison. Now in 1:28 overall, 1:9
among black kids. Unsustainable, devastating policy. http://j.mp/9EJGuu |
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| More Democracy, More Incarceration – Reason Magazine The devastating mix of politics and crime policy |
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More on dynastic politics in Congress: "The Dynasty Advantage: Family Ties in Congressional Elections" http://j.mp/c7eD1e (gated)
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| ingentaconnect The Dynasty Advantage: Family Ties in Congressional Elections | ||
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